China in Africa

From blogging to tweeting

2011-10-27T12:59:00.010-04:00

While time doesn't very much allow for blogging these days (only four more months until the PhD is submitted...!), I've recently discovered the ease of tweeting. Follow me on http://twitter.com/#!/awgadzala for updates on China, Africa, emerging markets, global financial regulation and all things related.....

Belated

2011-02-21T16:37:00.002-05:00

Dear Readers,

Owing to countless other commitments I have ceased blogging for the time being (no doubt noticeably so). All posts have been archived and I will leave the blog up for the time being. Hopefully when I again find my footing I will turn this into something bigger. For the time being, thank you ever so kindly for your readership.

With warmest wishes, A.

Looking back, moving forward

2010-12-27T13:33:00.009-05:00

With the year drawing to a close, it's often customary for individuals, organizations, bloggers, etc. to compile lists -- lists which, in their view, somehow encapsulate the passing year. Admittedly I have no such list to offer, though would like to draw your attention to a few rather worthwhile compilations. While not quite of the 'year in review' variety, I believe they actually say more than any such list would.

Arguably most interesting is Elizabeth Dickinson's post in Foreign Policy which examines what the leaked US diplomatic cables reveal about the world's rogue states. Dickinson conveniently breaks down the information into 'what we know' and 'what we learn,' with a few 'curve balls' thrown in for good measure. A most fascinating read.
Russell Leigh Moses of the WSJ points us to the top China political trends to watch in 2011, which say much about what transpired in 2010
In a similar vein, Reuters has compiled what they believe will be the leading global political risk trends for 2011 (all links are pdf), broken down regionally: Global risks/trends; Western Europe; Emerging Europe; Africa; Middle East; Latin America; United States

It is also incumbent upon me to call your attention to a new expert blog, written by the Council on Foreign Relation's senior fellow for Africa policy studies, Ambassador John Campbell. In 'Africa in Transition,' Campbell examines political and security developments in sub-Saharan Africa in a most astute fashion. Though much of the posting tends to focus on Nigeria in particular, there is much fascinating insight to be garnered.

And with that I wish you all the best for the coming New Year. May 2011 be kind to us all!

IMF releases Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa. Head-scratching ensues.

2010-11-12T16:42:00.009-05:00

The IMF has recently released it Regional Economic Outlook (2010-2011) for Sub-Saharan Africa, the link to which may be found here (pdf file). What I find especially curious is the report's suggestion that Africa's national elections have little to no bearing on economic activity in the states in which they transpire. A rather erroneous wedge between politics and economics, I would be inclined to argue.

If one does follow the IMF's claim to its logical conclusion, however, the good news is that the 17 elections* scheduled to take place across the continent over the course of the coming year will have absolutely no impact on neither growth nor general investment prospects in any of these states.

What do we think?

* Countries where major elections in 2011 are planned or have been mooted include Benin, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Chad, Comoros, Democratic Republic of Congo, The Gambia, Liberia, Madagascar, Niger, Nigeria, São Tomé & Príncipe, Seychelles, Swaziland, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.

Changed priorities ahead

2010-10-13T10:54:00.003-04:00

For the past few months I have been toying with the idea of returning to blogging, having (rather reluctantly) given up the enterprise some time ago. The thing with bloggers these day, I find, is that they do it constantly or not at all: it's either job-like or it's not. Falling the category of 'almost-but-not-quite-willing-to-dedicate-my-life-to-blogging' of bloggers, I relinquished the task, only to be confronted by an old Oxford tutor of mine the other day, who immediately prompted to enquire about my absence from the blog-o-sphere. Perhaps his words were merely intended as polite chit-chat, or perhaps he was indeed genuine in his desire to see my thoughts plastered all over the internet -- either way, here I am back; inspired and ready and willing to reengage in discussion with those of you out there.

My time away has been quite curious, divided as it was between fieldwork in Addis Ababa, holidays on the American east coast, and -- of course -- Oxford. My research has shifted slightly, away from the more economical and towards the more political. My time in the field has led me to the (perhaps anticlimactic) conclusion that China's economic competition in Africa can largely be understood in simple market economic terms (i.e. competition), and save for curious loopholes and investment advantages enjoyed by Chinese firms, the story more or less stops there. Where it begins is with the political and cultural/societal implications of China's engagement with Africa: not only for the African countries themselves, but for the region and international community more generally.

The NYTime's David Sanger had a perhaps slightly obvious though nevertheless worthwhile piece on "the three faces of China" which very much speaks to this issue. Sanger argues:

In one sense, there’s nothing surprising about a rising power finding subtle ways to handle complex problems. But before China’s breakout from poverty to arguably the world’s No. 2 economy, its default position on foreign policy was to restate the principle of non-interference in other nations’ affairs and focus largely on its neighborhood.

That was before it had the military resources and the incentive to start thinking of how to secure and defend interests around the globe. Today, its interests include access to oil in places like Sudan and Iran, safe shipping around the Horn of Africa, the ability to manipulate its currency for its own gain.

And for the first time, the world is seeing a distinct range of behaviors, from aggressive to passive-aggressive to diplomatic, in places that 20 years ago China’s leaders rarely thought about.

What American diplomats and analysts now have to figure out is what drives China’s actions and responses, how to try to shape them and, some would argue, what limits to try to set

Not only American diplomats, but indeed international leaders generally. Though the 'China threat' theory was perhaps a bit too overplayed, China's global political rise remains largely underplayed, presented as an event that may or may not occur at some point in the distant future. A balance must be found, preferably sooner rather than later.

Sino-African relations during the T'ang Dynasty (618-907 A.D.)

2010-05-11T19:39:00.005-04:00

I've recently been working on a chapter which is to be included in a great forthcoming book edited by Emma Mawdsley and Gerard McCann on contemporary Indian-African relations. The chapter examines in a comparative perspective Chinese and Indian entrepreneurs in the East African economies, ultimately arguing that the competitive advantages enjoyed by the Chinese enable them to out-compete their Indian-origin and African counterparts.

In conducting research for the piece, I stumbled across a fascinating source on Sino-African relations which - finally and thankfully - puts a lid on any claims of novelty surrounding present bilateral relations, tracing interactions between Chinese and African merchants back in time across the centuries. The source is the Yu-yang-tsa-tu written by Tuan Ch'eng-shih during the T'ang Dynasty (618-907 A.D). The Yu-yang-tsa-tu is a compendium of general knowledge written about the land of 'Po-pa-li,' i.e. present day Somalia, and it describes from a Chinese perspective daily life in Po-pa-li and, perhaps most curiously, the blood oaths taken between Chinese and Somali traders prior to engaging in the barter of goods. Those were the days.

Excerpts from the book may be found in Robert Collin's East African History v. 2 (African History in Documents), snippets of which are available through Google books. The work is, above all else, a fascinating insight into not only (very) early-day Somalia, but also early Chinese perceptions of Africa - some of which remain unaltered today.

Cruel Ethiopia

2010-05-10T06:21:00.007-04:00

As an avid reader of the New York Review of Books and, equally, having a distinct interest in African politics, I was quite thrilled to read Helen Epstein's piece in the NYRB, "Cruel Ethiopia." In the piece, Epstein addresses the pitfalls of foreign aid as they are manifest in Ethiopia in particular and - I would argue - in Africa, generally:

The Western Renaissance helped to democratize “the word” so that all of us could speak of our own individual struggles, and this added new meaning and urgency to the alleviation of the suffering of others. The problem with foreign aid in Ethiopia is that both the Ethiopian government and its donors see the people of this country not as individuals with distinct needs, talents, and rights but as an undifferentiated mass, to be mobilized, decentralized, vaccinated, given primary education and pit latrines, and freed from the legacy of feudalism, imperialism, and backwardness. It is this rigid focus on the “backward masses,” rather than the unique human person, that typically justifies appalling cruelty in the name of social progress.

Epstien's piece does an apt job highlighting not only the herd mentality which continues to typify foreign assistance strategies, but further emphasizes a point which many fail to, or are otherwise unwilling to, appreciate: more often than not, the domestic policies maintained by the governments of recipient states are the culprits of poverty and oppression, and stand to be exacerbated by inflows of aid money. Ethiopia is, for instance, rapidly becoming among the most repressive and dictatorial countries on the continent, and yet simultaneously remains the subject of an informal experiment to discover whether the "big push" approach to African development will (finally) succeed.

The trouble with aid is precisely this "big push" approach. Programs must become increasingly tailored to the particular contexts for which they are intended, and targeted to achieve very specific aims. The Gates Foundation is seemingly growing cognizant of this fact as it is revamping its 'war on polio' campaign, moving away from its hitherto pursued strategy of vertical health programs towards investments in health systems. For any foreign assistance strategy to fulfill its intended function, an enabling framework must indeed be in place, be it a viable health system or a healthy government. Of course this is a tired argument, having been repeated ad nauseam within the development literature. Nevertheless, Epstein's piece does a wonderful job of highlighting this reality in the context of a country often left out of the development discourse.

Get real, Bob

2010-04-21T06:01:00.009-04:00

I have in recent days been preparing myself for the St. Andrew's Economic Forum, which is to take place this weekend - volcanic ash cloud permitting. I've been invited to moderate an exceptional panel on China-Africa relations, which will explore the developmental potential China brings to the continent, as well as other key issues pertaining to environmental sustainability, human rights, trends in Chinese investment and so forth.

In the course of my preparations, I happened to stumble upon a great piece by Richard Dowden - Director of the Royal African Society and one of the panelists - regarding the discovery this past March that millions of dollars in Western aid money which were sent to Ethiopia to aid victims of the 1984-5 famine were used not for purposes of food supplies, but rather to purchase weapons. This news of course set off bells and whistles among the donor community and do-gooder, pseudo-intellectual, save-the-planet types like Bono and - most prominently - 80s rock star Bob Geldof, whose 1985 Live Aid concert was used to fundraise for the cause. Geldof went on something of a rampage against the BBC - who first revealed the news - stating (shouting, in fact!): "Produce me one shred of evidence and I promise you I will professionally investigate it, I will professionally report it, and if there is any money missing I will sue the Ethiopian government for that money back and I will spend it on aid." Yes, good. Good luck with that.

Whilst Geldof's anger may be understandable, it altogether demonstrates a fantastic ignorance of Africa: its issues, needs and complexities. An ignorance which, unfortunately, persists today among celebrities and aid agencies who have placed themselves on a do-or-die mission to "save Africa." With respect to the Ethiopian case, Dowden hits the nail on the head:

The impression was made that nature had caused the great hunger, a terrible Biblical plague, an act of God. All the poor Ethiopians needed was food.

They did need food but they also needed peace. Rebel movements were driving the government and its army out of two mountainous region, Tigray and Eritrea. The government, headed by the military dictator Mengistu Haile Mariam, was backed by the Soviet Union and Cuba and had the biggest army in Africa.

Mengistu ruled with brutal Soviet-style policies of forced migration and starvation. Traditional trade routes and the movement of much-needed food was impossible. The well-organised rebels received almost no help from anyone. They lived off the land, captured weapons from their enemy and taxed the people to buy more guns and ammunition.

Ethiopia's famine, Dowden goes on to aptly note, was ultimately caused not by a localised drought, but by a dictatorship that led to war. War disrupted trade, prevented food being moved in and caused famine. The aid community at the time failed to realize this - or perhaps chose not to. Raising funds for weaponry to support a rebel movement is arguably more difficult and less glamorous than fundraising to feed starving African children, whose pictures flash across TV screens and appear in glossy magazines. Yet the reality of aid politics in Africa is complex, messy and - often - unpleasant. The aid community must finally and fully come around to this realization and, moreover, must cease treating the continent as a helpless child in need of rescue. As the Ethiopian case makes plainly evident, Ethiopia in the 1980s understood what it needed - weapons. Africa today likewise understands what it needs - trade, aid, investment; the rise of a middle class and an educated, skilled population.

It's time to change the nature of the questions we've been posing regarding African development, and get real. And Bob, stop your shouting.

Noteworthy...

2010-04-05T10:57:00.003-04:00

Conflict leads to state-building? The curious case of Kenya

Much of the over-hyped China rhetoric emanating from Washington is disregarding a crucial element of the story: China's strong import levels

Chinese and Indian defense planning, compared

Zambian views on Chinese firms from Zambian Trade Minister, Felix Mutati

On the Chinese presence in Zambia

2010-03-26T11:35:00.003-04:00

A recent paper of mine, "From formal- to informal-sector employment: examining the Chinese presence in Zambia," has been published in the Review of African Political Economy. The paper in full can be found here (PDF; subscription may be required), and the abstract noted here below:

This paper analyses China's recent engagement with Zambia, examining especially Chinese hiring practices, methods of business organisation and the labour conditions maintained by Chinese-operated construction and mining firms. Moving beyond existing analyses which remain focused solely on Chinese trade, aid and investment, this study begins to explore the micro-level of Chinese ventures, arguing that the continued employment of co-nationals as well as the generally substandard labour conditions maintained by Chinese firms lead to the offloading of Zambian workers into the country's burgeoning informal economy. There, newly emerged Chinese businesses stand to threaten local entrepreneurs who lack the resources necessary to parry Chinese competition. The result is a rapidly growing national unemployment rate and an increasing number of Zambians left struggling to sustain their livelihoods. This paper further argues that the characteristics defining China's engagement with Zambia are not particular to the Zambian context alone, but are rather abiding characteristics of overseas Chinese businesses in general. The paper ultimately calls for a policy framework regulating Chinese business activities in Zambia, lest the negative consequences of the Sino-Zambian partnership prevail.
Keywords: Chinese entrepreneurs; labour relations; Zambia; mining; informal economy; economic development

One world; one China; no Google

2010-03-23T06:29:00.005-04:00

The much anticipated announcement of Google's plans for its Chinese market has finally come down the pipeline. The company has pulled out of the Chinese market, with Mainland customers being redirected to Google.hk.com - Google's Hong Kong server - as of early this morning. From Google's official corporate blog:

Users visiting Google.cn are now being redirected to Google.com.hk, where we are offering uncensored search in simplified Chinese, specifically designed for users in mainland China and delivered via our servers in Hong Kong. Users in Hong Kong will continue to receive their existing uncensored, traditional Chinese service, also from Google.com.hk. Due to the increased load on our Hong Kong servers and the complicated nature of these changes, users may see some slowdown in service or find some products temporarily inaccessible as we switch everything over.

Chinese officials have issued angry remarks over the decision (the full text of which may be found here), accusing Google of violating corporate promises made when the company initially entered the Chinese market.

What Google's move actually means for the Chinese government, citizen access to information and foreign firms with operations in the country, however, stands to be determined. A few immediate scenarios come to mind. With respect to the former two matters, China could block the Hong Kong site altogether or indeed on a case-by-case basis, perhaps further using the incident to regulate Hong Kong's freedoms - a dangerous path upon which to embark, to be sure. If pursued, such a move could potentially result in an increasing percentage of China's citizenry learning how to use circumvention techniques to get around such censorship - or, perhaps, not. It is, as Rebecca MacKinnon observes, a question of how aware the Chinese are of their government-imposed and managed tunnel vision, and how determined they are to shake themselves from its shackles.

Beyond this, it wouldn't be surprising to find the government imposing increasingly stringent regulations on foreign companies breaking into the market in the future. Again, however, such an approach could potentially hamper FDI inflows into the country if orchestrated on a large enough scale, subsequently obstructing the CCP's objectives of increased investment and growth. Equally, then, growing in realization of the unaccommodating nature of its policies on FDI inflows into the country, we might observe a gradual liberalizing of CCP policies. 'Might' being the operative word in this context.

Indeed, Google's move this morning has seemingly opened a Pandora's box of question and possible policy options. It will be most interesting to track this story as it unfolds. It is most interesting, too, to a observe a corporation affecting a country's domestic - and potentially international - politics in such a profound way. For a great collection of papers on corporations and global governance, do please take a look at the St. Antony's International Review April 2009 issue, which focuses precisely on this very issue.

The comeback kid

2010-03-21T09:06:00.002-04:00

It truly is embarrassing, this unintended hiatus I've taken from posting here. Over the past several months I on occasion vowed to myself to "get back to it next week," but - as is plainly evident - with little success. I do wish I could proffer an explanation for my absence, but I must confess that there isn't one worthy of mention. Whatever the case, I've returned with high hope and intention to be more diligent in my writings on this space; indeed, there is much about which to write.

The past few months have been spent refining and focusing on my PhD dissertation which, I'm quite pleased to say, is slowly beginning to take form. My research has shifted slightly from its previous focus on Chinese entrepreneurs in East Africa (though this still very much informs my work), to asking broader questions of the geo-strategic sort - in the context of Sino-Ethiopian relations in particular. In the course of my research I have admittedly grown rather frustrated with the emergent body of literature on China-Africa relations, consisting as it does of the same themes repeated over and over and over again. There's a song out these days by Iyaz, an allegedly up-and-coming young rapper, entitled "Replay;" part of the song's refrain goes: "It's like my iPod stuck on replay, replay-ay-ay-ay....". Most applicable to literature on Sino-African relations, unfortunately.

It's not the the literature is bad per se, but rather that in both asking the same questions and in treating China's forays into Africa an an international anomaly unseen in any other time or place we are, I think, asking the wrong questions. We need to take a step back, I believe, and look at the big picture: the Chinese aren't the only investors in Africa; what else is going on? How do all of these intersection points of agency stand to influence the continent? And influence in what way? Politically? Socially? Economically? What about China? How does Africa fit into China's grand strategy? What is that strategy? Who's strategy? And on the African side of things, too, where is the agency? What are the key strategic interests? How does China fit into Africa's strategy and the strategies of its constituent member states? By asking these (and indeed other) questions the phenomenon known as "China in Africa" is seemingly removed from the vacuum in which it has hitherto been resident and begins to take on new and exciting dimensions. Indeed, we all know that China seeks Africa's resources - and Africa in turn China's investment. There is, however, more to the story.

Relatedly (or perhaps not), together with a friend and colleague, I've published a paper as part of Afrobarometer's Working Paper Series. The paper focuses on African perceptions of the bourgeoning Chinese presence in the continent, further deciphering the factors informing the views held. The full paper may be found here. I will leave it to you to decide in which category of writing it should be placed.

While you were gone...

2009-11-04T03:53:00.004-05:00

Dearest Readers: I apologize sincerely for the rather embarrassing lack of posting in recent days (or has it been weeks, already?). I have several writing projects on my plate at the moment (not to mention the mammoth beast that is the PhD), all of which have served to hamper my desire to blog when I manage to steal away some ever-fleeting moments of spare time. That said, I have not abandoned you and will continue to post in this space when I can (hopefully more frequently going forward!).

Now, let's get back to business, shall we? It seems that among the golden rules governing the IR world is the ever-wise maxim, "don't blink or you'll miss it." Much has happened in the way of Sino-African relations since I last wrote. To that end, I've collected a not-so-brief list of stories which have surfaced during my absence, and which I deem especially worthy of note:

The FT last week ran a special report on Kenya. Whilst many "special reports" of such a nature have previously been written, I found this one especially well crafted and comprehensive, covering issues ranging from the country's leadership crisis to its extreme (and extremely fickle) climate
Always sharp, always informative, Elizabeth Dickinson asks whether China's Guinea deal is for real. Emerging evidence suggests that the deal may actually amount to nothing more than wishful thinking on the part of the Guineans, though given the shroud of secrecy under which the Chinese (and by and large Guineans) operate, the actual reality of the matter is anyone's best guess. I find it perfectly typical, though: Guinea is embroiled in turmoil and gross human rights violations; the international community is ready to impose sanctions; and China is soldering on with its oil and investment deals. Where have we seen this before?
Unsurprisingly, an increasing body of experts are calling for heightened transparency in China's Africa investments. I wouldn't be surprised if Beijing will over time begin declassifying a select pool of documents surrounding its African activities - not because it will have suddenly decided to operate within the international regulatory framework, but for the very reason that by appeasing Western demands in this regard it will be able to continue doing as it pleases. Give a little, take a lot seems to be the name of the game.
In the name of fairness, however, if one is to be critical of the Chinese for their African oil investments, one should seemingly be equally condemnatory of the Bush family....
A sad twist of irony in our technologically advanced world: phones appear to be more widespread than food. Might we - in our constant pursuit of all things bigger, better and faster - be losing sight of the basic needs of the world's poor? Food for thought (no pun intended)
An interesting glance into the DRC's 2009 budget (HT: Texas in Africa). As Texas in Africa aptly notes, the best thing about the budget is how easy it is to see where the money is being stolen. The whole thing reads quite like a satirical novella. Well, almost.
The 2009 Forum on China Africa Cooperation is due to take place in Egypt on 8-9 November. I look forward to reading the newly revised China Africa strategy which, I'm quite certain, will read exactly like the old one
A most harrowing account of human rights violations in North Korea from The Economist. While North Korea is generally discussed solely in terms of its nuclear ambitions and contentious behavior on the international stage, one often forgets of the country's population, which is suffering under the most atrocious and deplorable conditions
On the near-eve of the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, Brahma Chellaney puts 1989 in global comparative perspective: Europe got freedom, Asia got rich. And, twenty years later, China's authoritarian capitalism stands to challenge the global spread of democratic values. How much happens in such a short period of history.

A market for aid?

2009-10-22T03:43:00.003-04:00

In his new essay on aid, Owen Barder argues that policies to improve aid have - and continue to - rely too much on a planning paradigm that attempts to ignore, rather than change, the political economy of aid:

It is tempting to conclude that the answer is for donors to defer to the leadership of developing country governments, especially given the commitments to this in the Paris Declaration and the Accra Agenda for Action. But that assumes away the problem. The balance of power between donors and recipients converges on an equilibrium which balances the various interests of the givers and receivers of aid, and the implementing agents. If we find this equilibrium unsatisfactory, we have to change the determinants of the equilibrium, not simply try to move away from it.

Barder posits a combination of market mechanisms, networked collaboration and collective regulation as more likely to herald the desired results than the hitherto pursued policy approaches. Such coordination, he argues, can improve accountability, reduce information asymmetries, and reduce principal-agent problems currently faced by donor agencies. In so doing, they can help to change the political economy of aid, and so move the political equilibrium.

Arguably Barder's most controversial suggestion is the unbundling of funding from aid management to create more explicit markets for aid delivery. What this means in practice is opening up contracts to competition among a range of aid delivery agencies, both public and private. Such competition could lead to greater specialisation and division of labour, incentives to define and measure results, etc.

The UNDP (among countless such aid agencies, to be sure!) must be reeling. What are your thoughts?

(PS. For more from Owen have a look at his blog, found here)

Where have all the (good) African leaders gone?

2009-10-21T06:29:00.005-04:00

It would seem that there are no worthwhile (past) African leaders in the entirety of Africa.

The Mo Ibrahim Foundation, established on the premise of improving the quality of governance across the continent, has for the past several years awarded the African Leadership Prize to previous leaders who have done well to support the cause of good governance in their respective countries. This year no such prize was awarded. While Ibrahim claims that there are "no issues of disrespect" surrounding the decision, it nevertheless comes as quite a low blow, especially to the likes of Mbeki and Kufour who - while no doubt boasting highly dubious governance records - were the likely contenders.

Aside from a nice pat on the back, however, the effectiveness of the prize (if the conferring of a prize can indeed be effective) is questionable. The general idea underpinning the award is that by singling out previous statesmen who supported democracy, the rule of law, and all other such things that have come to be lumped under the general notion of 'governance,' sitting leaders will be encouraged to act similarly. Yet, as the BBC rightly points out, this doesn't at all seem to be the case:

Uganda, Chad and Cameroon have all changed their constitutions so their leaders can retain their positions.

There have been coups in Guinea, Mauritania and Madagascar, as well as several elections that fell well short of international standards. And the countries that have received most praise from Mo Ibrahim's foundation this year - Mauritius, Cape Verde and Seychelles - are far from the continent's centres of power.

That being said, perhaps withholding the prize this year sends a different, much more apt message: work harder.

Learning Chinese in Liberia

2009-10-19T05:43:00.003-04:00

Surely a sign of the times: Chinese officials operating in Liberia are offering free Chinese language lessons to young Liberians - and anyone keen to learn the language more generally:

As in much of Africa, China is heavily engaged in post-war Liberia, rebuilding roads with funding from the World Bank, managing hotels and restaurants, trading in medicines and other businesses.

Chinese mineral firm China Union became the largest investor in Liberia when it signed a $2.6bn deal to go into iron-ore mining earlier this year. There is even a Chinese-language radio station broadcasting across the country for the increasing number of migrant workers and expatriates.

The growing trade ties explain why the Chinese embassy and the Ministry of Youth and Sports have decided to put on free two-hour classes in the afternoon, five days a week.

While some may tout such lessons as an exercise in colonialism (an argument which many Liberians are likely to put forward themselves), such skills training may in fact be the harbinger of increased opportunity for the country's citizens, allowing them not only greater mobility in terms of movement to China, but also enabling them to eventually communicate with the Chinese thereby engaging in more meaningful business negotiations. Perhaps I'm feeling exceptionally optimistic this morning, or perhaps the Chinese are actually (finally?) working towards making their "mutually beneficial" partnership with Liberia precisely just that.

Noteworthy...

2009-10-12T06:03:00.004-04:00

CNOOC wants a stake in Ghana's oil field. So does Exxon Mobil. A showdown in the making...
Anti-Chinese sentiment appears to be escalating in the DRC. The Chinese firm Sinohydro suffered an attack earlier this month by unidentified gunmen. This is unfortunately one among a growing number of such instances in the DRC
"Conservative Egyptian lawmakers have called for a ban on imports of a Chinese-made kit meant to help women fake their virginity and one scholar has even called for the 'exile' of anyone who imports of uses it." And here you thought China was engaged in resource extraction alone...
Yet another reason why I'm skeptical that China will ever do anything about North Korea. *Sigh*
Last week the Mo Ibrahim Foundation released its annual index of governance in Africa. You can find the rankings here, and several of Elizabeth Dickinson's reflections here
China is in a push for Guinea's resources - minerals and [the hope of] oil. Guinea is one of the poorest states in West Africa, with a seriously dubious human rights and governance record.
The Gates Foundation is exploring securitizing aid. Securitization seems to be a dirty word these days, but Gates may be onto something...

China becomes South Africa's top export destination

2009-10-05T05:47:00.005-04:00

From Friday's Reuters:

China overtook the United States as South Africa's biggest export destination in the first half of 2009, reinforcing the Asian country's push to build trade links with Africa.

South African trade and industry department data also showed on Friday China replaced Germany as its largest country trade partner.

[...] Data for South Africa -- Africa's biggest economy -- showed exports to China stood at 27.6 billion rand for the year to June, against 35.8 billion rand for the whole of 2008. Exports to the U.S. were 19.1 billion rand compared with 66.5 billion rand for 2008.

Don't get on their bad side...

2009-10-02T05:03:00.003-04:00

Yesterday's FT had a fascinating piece about China's lesser-known (though absolutely no less important!) Central Organisation Department:

To glean a sense of the dimensions of the organisation department’s job, conjure up a parallel body in Washington. The imaginary department would oversee the appointments of US state governors and their deputies; the mayors of big cities; heads of federal regulatory agencies; the chief executives of General Electric,ExxonMobil, Walmart and 50-odd of the remaining largest companies; justices on the Supreme Court; the editors of The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal and The Washington Post, the bosses of the television networks and cable stations, the presidents of Yale and Harvard and other big universities and the heads of think-tanks such as the Brookings Institution and the Heritage Foundation.

Such continued adherence to a distinctly authoritarian political system is among the many reasons I don't see China evolving into a 'Western-style' democracy anytime in the near future. It furthermore presents a significant hurdle to the formation of genuine strategic partnerships between China and the West, which consists primarily of democracies.

It's the oil, stupid

2009-10-01T05:19:00.002-04:00

Following on yesterday's post about China's pursuit of Nigerian oil, the CS Monitor today has an interesting piece on why China is unlikely to support sanctions on Iran - even if today's US-Iran talks go badly (which many suspect they will). The bottom line: oil, of course! China imports nearly 15% of its crude oil from Iran, and has recently started selling refined gasoline to Iran. What's more:

Chinese state-owned oil companies have signed three multi-billion dollar deals with Iran this year to develop oil and gas fields there, in a bid to establish a strategic hold over resources not under the control of Western oil firms.

"Iran has bountiful energy resources, its natural gas reserves are the second largest in the world, and all are basically under its own control," former Chinese ambassador to Tehran Sun Bigan wrote in the latest issue of "Asia and Africa Review," published by a prominent government think tank.

China also became a partner this year in a proposed pipeline carrying gas from Iran to Pakistan. Since India dropped out of the project, the pipe is now due to carry gas north from Pakistan into China, indicating Beijing's strategic vision of its future energy supplies.

As I've noted on countless previous occasions, China is in many respects the classic textbook case of realist politics, with primacy placed on its national interests and security over all other matters and considerations. It comes as little surprise, then, that Beijing remains unwilling to crack down on Tehran: Tehran has what Beijing wants and needs, and the Chinese will be damned if anything gets in the way of that. If you're waiting for Chinese sanctions on any oil-exporting country, you may be waiting a while...

China goes after Nigeria's oil

2009-09-30T06:48:00.004-04:00

Via Tom Burgis writing in the FT:

A Chinese state-owned oil company is in talks with Nigeria to buy large stakes in some of the world’s richest oil blocs in a deal that would eclipse Beijing’s previous efforts to secure crude overseas.

The attempt could pitch the Chinese into competition with western oil groups, including Shell, Chevron, Total and ExxonMobil, which partly or wholly control and operate the 23 blocks under discussion. Sixteen licences are up for renewal.

Most prominently, CNOOC is hoping to buy 6 billion barrels of oil, equivalent to one in every six barrels of proven reserves in Nigeria. While the overall value of the offer has not been disclosed, some sources suggest that it caps somewhere around the $50 billion mark. Another issue yet to be disclosed is that of how the Nigerian government plans to allocate equity in the oil blocks; some suspect that it may involve forcing western groups to relinquish their stakes. Bring on the fireworks.

Noteworthy...

2009-09-30T05:50:00.004-04:00

Hello (!), and thanks very much for being so patient while I transitioned back to an Oxonian existence. I'm nearly all settled and on something resembling a routine, which is quite exciting. Research productivity is still a matter to be tackled, but I'm getting there... slowly, slowly.

News while I was away? - Lots, really! Below is a little collection of stories which caught my attention when I finally sat down to catch-up on the world's goings-on. These are but several among many, to be sure:

Owen Barder on when innovative finance is good for development - and when it isn't
Despite China's rapid economic rebound in recent months, many Chinese companies are still operating at a lower level of activity than they had achieved in the boom years
American chicken feet may be the US's saving grace in its recent (and ongoing) trade war with China
Nestle is in a bit of a bind as it has been discovered that the company purchases milk from a Zimbabwean farm seized from its white owners and now owned by Mugabe's wife. Now that's a "whoops" moment if I ever saw one...
The 24 September edition of the Economist had a wonderful special report on the positive potential of mobile money in Africa
Writing in the European Voice, Jonathan Holslag and Gustaaf Geeraerts argue that Europe should expect to see a more assertive China in the coming years
A rather biting review of Paul Collier's book, Wars, Guns & Votes written by Dr. Mutuma Ruteere, Research Fellow at the University of Cape Town. The review is written from an anti-imperialist, anti-interventionist tone; certainly worth your time

Signing off for a bit...

2009-09-14T08:40:00.003-04:00

I'm moving back to Oxford on Wednesday and am taking the next few weeks off from blogging to get my ducks in a row and myself on some sort of schedule. If a major event occurs somewhere in the world, I will try to ween myself away from duvet shopping, house keeping, haggling with British banks and Ph.D brainstorming - whatever will happen to be occupying my time - to write a proper commentary. Assuming such a thing won't be necessary, regular posting will resume in early October.

Noteworthy...

2009-09-11T09:51:00.004-04:00

Observing the evolution of the theory of evolution
Via Marginal Revolution, a video on wine and cereal pairings. I can't quite decide whether to be intrigued or absolutely mortified, or whether to simply laugh it off given that all food and wine pairings are allegedly a scam, anyway
Sub-Saharan African states are falling behind other regions in terms of competitiveness. While there have been some improvements in the past year (with Uganda registering as most improved), sub-Saharan states as a whole have slipped down the global rankings since they were first listed in 2000
Freakanomics has a great piece on African entrepreneurship, which highlights the creative ingenuity present across the continent
Bilateral relations between China and Cuba are at their best time in history, according to Chinese top legislator Wu Bangguo. Oh, and the U.N. has declared Castro a "World Hero of Solidarity." Makes you stop and think, doesn' it?
Think your DSL is faster than a pigeon? Think again
On this September 11, 2009 please take a moment to remember all those who sacrificed their lives eight years ago today. We will never forget

Doing Business 2010

2009-09-09T09:14:00.003-04:00

Doing Business 2010 has been released today, and the oft-cited rankings are now publicly available.

The report contains several interesting findings, perhaps the most important of which is that Rwanda has been ranked as the top business reformer - a first for a sub-Saharan African economy (Mauritius retained its top ranking as the African country in which it is easiest to do business). This ranking is based on the number and impact of reforms introduced in the year - through May 2009 - a summary of which may be found here (scroll down for table). The report also finds that:
Two regions were particularly active this year: Eastern Europe and Central Asia and the Middle East and North Africa. In Eastern Europe and Central Asia, 26 of the region’s 27 economies reformed business regulation in at least one area covered by Doing Business. Governments in the Middle East and North Africa are reforming at a similar rate, with 17 of 19 reforming in 2008/09. In both cases, competition among neighbors helped inspire widespread reform.

An overview of the report may be found here; report highlights here; and the complete ranking of all 183 economies here.

Lighthearted on a rainy Tuesday morning

2009-09-08T09:01:00.004-04:00

It's been pouring down rain for the past several days, and I've reached that point where - between the boxes, the packing, the errands, and the downright gloomy weather - I could use a bit of a pick me up. Enter Novak Djokovic, the #4 seeded men's tennis player, who is as renowned for his impersonations of other players as he is for his stellar tennis. Djokovic defeated Radek Stepanek in the fourth round of the U.S. Open last night, and - together with John McEnroe who came down from his commentary box - put on quite a show afterwards! It's so lovely to come across an athlete with such a superb sense of humour:

Trafficking in African stereotypes

2009-09-07T20:17:00.013-04:00

I generally refrain from criticizing NYTimes coverage of African news, though for some inexplicable reason I now find myself unable to resist commentary. I suppose one can only read so many stereotyped and misinformed "news" stories before it becomes too much to bear. Texas in Africa, G. Pascal Zachary and the ladies at Wronging Rights, among others, have all been quick to stress the problems with NYTimes reporting on previous occasions (see here, here and here for instance), and if I may, I'd quite like to add my voice to theirs.

The story that has finally broken my silence is one written by Jeffrey Gettleman on the drought currently plaguing Kenya. Gettleman writes:

A devastating drought is sweeping across Kenya, killing livestock, crops and children. It is stirring up tensions in the ramshackle slums where the water taps have run dry, and spawning ethnic conflict in the hinterland as pastoralist communities fight over the last remaining pieces of fertile grazing land.

The twin hearts of Kenya’s economy, agriculture and tourism, are especially imperiled. The fabled game animals that safari-goers fly thousands of miles to see are keeling over from hunger and the picturesque savannah is now littered with an unusually large number of sun-bleached bones.

I don't at all question the severity of the drought, or the fact that it is indubitably a cause of great concern for Kenyans dependent on agriculture for their livelihood. As Gettleman notes, the drought is also increasing conflict in some parts of the country, with farmers struggling for access to arable land. Such conflict, however, is not "ethnic," but rather an instance of basic survival, devoid of any ethnic undertones. Where ethnicity does factor, I would venture to guess that it is of secondary, rather than primary, concern.

Aside from this point, what I find most troublesome about Gettleman's piece is his suggestion that the Kenyan economy will somehow crumble - or is crumbling - as a consequence of the drought. While the Kenyan economy is certainly still highly dependent on its agricultural exports and land more generally, there is certainly more to it than what Gettleman seems to be suggesting. The unknowing reader comes away from Gettleman's piece with an image of a completely impoverished, desert-like country on the brink of disaster - a stereotype of a "typical" African country, if such a thing exists (it doesn't). While Kenya surely does have its problems, Gettleman's imagery is highly misguiding. Technology in Kenya is expanding at a rapid pace, heralding much opportunity for development. Emphasis is also being placed on the country's private sector as an engine for growth, as well as small-scale (often creative) manufacturing. One doesn't get any of this from Gettleman's piece; quite the opposite, really.

Perhaps I'm being too harsh. Gettleman's likely objective is to call attention to a problem which is continuing to cause serious trouble for the East African country. Doing so, however, shouldn't entail a complete distortion of the country in question. This benefits no one and is, moreover, poor journalism. Can we work on this, please?

* Image: NYTimes. Incidentally also the image accompanying Gettleman's piece.

Understanding China's international behavior

2009-09-07T09:45:00.005-04:00

The RAND Corporation has released a most worthwhile report on China's international behavior. Sponsored by the U.S. Air Force, the report:

analyzes the content, character, and execution of China’s international behavior. It examines how China views its security environment, how it defines its foreign policy objectives, how it is pursuing these objectives, and the consequences for U.S. economic and security interests.

While I haven't yet made my way through the document in its entirety, I can comfortably say that it does an excellent job of highlighting and explaining the breadth and rapidity of China's international exploits, without the sense of panic that now plagues the majority of such reports emanating from the U.S.. The report examines China's foreign policy strategy from the point of view of Beijing's objectives, and stresses especially the ways in which China is working within the current international system while at the same time altering it to its advantage. The full report may be found here.

Noteworthy...

2009-09-04T09:11:00.007-04:00

Posting here will likely be light(-ish) through the end of this month, as I'm currently in the process of moving back to Oxford after a year-long hiatus. As you might imagine, things are rather hectic, and I imagine that they will remain as such until I'm properly settled in the city of dreaming spires come the end of September/early October. Please do bear with me!

For now, some very noteworthy reads (now bulleted for your reading pleasure owing to their number. Slightly more optically pleasing, no?):

Protests have again broken out in Urumqi, the capital of China's Xinjiang province, two months after the initial turmoil. Thousands of Han Chinese have taken to the street touting the "uselessness" of the government and its failure to provide appropriate security protections in the region
John Prendergast, co-chair of the ENOUGH Project, discusses the flaws in the Obama administration's Sudan policy and what should be done to remedy them. Mark Goldberg was right: Darfur activists appear to be losing their patience
Gmail was down for a while this week, and it seems that the world nearly stood still. Why do we freak out over such seemingly insignificant technical glitches?
It's no secret that the Chinese cook their books. What's perhaps less well known is that the cooking is done not by central CCP bureaucrats, but by local and provincial government officials. Such a reality speaks to the complexities of center-periphery relations in the country
Is Kenya falling apart? It certainly appears that way, especially with the Kenyan state growing increasingly less visible and less relevant
One-third of Chinese scientists want to switch careers and wouldn't recommend their profession to their children. Too little pay, too much work
While I'm certainly no expert on Honduran politics, I nevertheless find it rather curious that the U.S. is threatening not to recognize the results of the Honduran elections to be held this November. This decision is based on the "current existing conditions" in the country, which have deteriorated since the June 28 coup. If this is indeed the sole guiding motive, surely the U.S. should not have recognized the Iranian election results either?
Via Texas in Africa I learn of a brilliant series being run by Myles Estey over at The Esteyonage. The series, 'Gettin by,' looks at the micro-economy of Liberia and the means by which people outside the national statistics make a living. While the focus in solely on Liberia, the findings are indubitably applicable to other African states as well
Amartya Sen's new book, The Idea of Justice, is 490-some pages of wise Sen-isms. Two themes predominate: economic rationality and social injustice. Occasional swings at John Rawls are also taken, which (depending on your guiding philosophy) make the book both witty and exceptionally informative. The Economist's review of the book may be found here

The U.S. and China: best friends forever? Don't hold your breath

2009-09-02T09:47:00.004-04:00

Or so say Ian Bremmer and Nouriel Roubini in the WSJ:

American and Chinese officials said all the right things during this summer's inaugural round of their Strategic and Economic Dialogue. President Barack Obama pledged to "forge a path to the future that we seek for our children." Chinese State Councilor Dai Bingguo wondered aloud whether America and China can "build better relations despite very different social systems, cultures and histories." He answered his own question, in English, with a "Yes we can."

They can, but they probably won't. Yes, Mr. Obama will visit China in November. But when it comes to international burden-sharing, Washington is focused on geopolitical headaches while China confines its heavy-lifting to geoeconomic challenges. The two sides have good reason to cooperate, but there's a growing gap between what Washington expects from Beijing and what the Chinese can deliver.

I couldn't have said it better myself. Indeed, despite the flowery rhetoric and displays of diplomacy, it is most unlikely that the United States and China will come to establish a strategic partnership anytime in the near future. This has less to do with Washington's efforts, and everything to do with Beijing's lack of desire.

In their WSJ piece, Bremmer and Roubini highlight several obvious and less obvious obstacles to partnership. Most important among them in my view (economic tensions aside) is the third, which stresses the divergence in geopolitical goals between China and the U.S. China currently has very little interest in assuming a broad global role: it has no desire to shoulder the responsibilities that come with involvement in Iraq or Iran, Pakistan, Sudan, etc. Beijing isn't interested in filling the shoes of the world's policeman, if for no other reason than its continued adherence to the 'non-interference policy' - its recent evolution notwithstanding. What's more, Beijing depends on many troublesome countries (Iran, for instance) for its energy imports, and thus isn't likely to take a stand against them in a way that would be pleasing to the United States (or the rest of the international community, for that matter) anytime soon.

The underlying motive for much - if not all - of China's overseas exploits is its own self-interest: its growth and security. Where these objectives line up with global and U.S. demands, great. Where they don't... well, tough beans. As Bremmer and Roubini aptly note, one of course shouldn't be too quick to dismiss the value of U.S.-China dialogues and the surrounding political symbolism. When it comes to concretes, however, both parties are pulling in opposite directions - and likely will be for some time to come.

PS: I doubt that Chinese propaganda blaming the swine flu virus on America does much to further anything resembling a strategic partnership. At least the propaganda cartoon is cute....

Doing business in China

2009-09-02T09:15:00.003-04:00

Beginning this month and continuing through November, The Atlantic will be running a series of clips from the DVD series "Doing Business in China" - a three year project headed in part by James Fallows. The clips will offer footage from factory floors, peasant villages, CCP headquarters, and the offices of foreign firms which have learned to be financially successful in the Middle Kingdom. The idea is to present the "real China," beyond the hype and the noise. It appears to be a most interesting project, and certainly worthy of your attention.

The following is the project's introductory video:

On China's burgeoning relationship with Francophone Africa and oil-for-infrastructure contracts

2009-09-01T09:00:00.004-04:00

The July issue of The China Monitor - a publication of the Centre for Chinese Studies at the University of Stellenbosch - is focused exclusively on the relationship between China and Francophone Africa. I find the focus most interesting, as it seems to suggest that the colonial history of African nations in some way affects the nature of China's engagement with them. Is China's engagement with Francophone Africa different, then, from its engagement with English Africa? Or Portuguese Africa? I admittedly hadn't given such a possibility much previous thought, but it is a hypothesis worth exploring.

Page 7 of this issue also features a piece by a colleague of mine, Dunia P. Zongwe, in which he interestingly writes on China's ore-for-infrastructure contracts, and the economic complementarities between China and Africa. The crux of Dunia's argument suggests that:

[...] the terms of economic exchanges in the mining sector between China and resource-rich African countries should assume, whenever possible, a R4I [resource for infrastructure] form.

In their essence, R4I contracts mirror contrat d'echange (exchange contracts), which do not involve any direct transfer of money to host governments, thereby reducing the risk that governments will mishandle investments. According to Dunia, such contracts carry further positive distributive outcomes, as African countries are able to retain and spread more widely the benefits of FDI than under traditional investment contracts. Such positive externalities are visible in Angola, which was recently lauded for its effectiveness in managing Chinese investment.

The Angolan case indeed seems to suggest that R4I contracts may be a valuable tool by which to optimize China's FDI in Africa if managed accordingly. The case further does well to bring African governance back into the equation; ultimately it is up to African governments to devise appropriate investment policies which optimize Chinese FDI and assist in developing the state and economy. The Chinese are making their moves, and African leaders must make theirs.

Noteworthy...

2009-08-24T08:59:00.007-04:00

Dear Readers: I will be on the road much of this week, so I'm afraid my blogging will be limited to... well, to be perfectly honest, I doubt I will be blogging at all! I'll be back next week with more news, analysis, and quips about this crazy field of international relations. Until then, today's Noteworthy reads:

Taking Africa beyond Aid. Yet another review of Moyo's book, Dead Aid, and a loud call for the development of African financial markets. As interesting as the piece itself are the comments, which inevitably turn to discussion of the Chinese presence on the continent

How can struggling countries break out of poverty if they're trapped in systems of bad rules? Paul Romer suggests "charter cities" as a possible solution

Something stinks. Must be Scotland's deal with Libya...

Osei Kofi on Africa's lagging contemporary art scene (and what to do about it)

Hugo Restall has an interesting piece in today's WSJ on the threesome that is Latin America (any country will do, really), the U.S. and China. While I tend to disagree with much of his analysis, it is an interesting argument nevertheless

For those among you who believed that China's alleged withdrawal from the deal with the Congo signaled China's retreat from the continent.... I hate to say 'I told you so,' but I told you so: China was never intending to withdraw, it was merely revising its strategy

Have a great week everyone!

Loan collateral - Italian style

2009-08-21T10:19:00.004-04:00

Hang on to those bottles of wine and that prosciutto - you may soon be able to use them as collateral in Italian banks! From The Guardian:

The Italian bank Credito Emiliano has long stored hundreds of thousands of parmesan wheels*, worth about ¤300 each, in warehouses as collateral while they age.

Since the bank can sell the cheese if creditors default, it can afford to offer low interest rates to an industry which is suffering from recession and supermarket discounting.

Legs of cured ham, or prosciutto crudo, weighing about 10kg, can sell for hundreds of euros after months of curing in controlled conditions, while bottles of Brunello di Montalcino are regularly snapped up for the same amount.

"We may start off with accepting wine as collateral, but I would prefer the Italian banking association to launch an industry-wide scheme which involves a range of products," said Zonin. "This will help producers in times of crisis as well as when the economy picks up."
Talk about financial innovation! Imagine: a bank vault filled entirely with wine, cheese and ham. How lush! Similar - though not necessarily as 'high end' - initiatives are employed to provide banking to the poor across the developing world. USAID's Rural SPEED program in Uganda, for instance, enables farmers to use their crops as collateral for a loan worth 80% of its value, and sell it later when prices increase. Admittedly, a vault filled with maize isn't as exciting as one filled with wine, but both initiatives do serve to help farmers overcome both the cyclical nature of farm income as well as a general lack of access to credit. Hooray!... and yum!
*link not included in the original Guardian article, but added by Yours Truly...

The crusade for women's rights

2009-08-20T20:44:00.008-04:00

The issue of women's rights is one that doesn't appear frequently here at China in Africa, but rest assured that such a lack is not for want of concern or interest. My undergraduate thesis centered on women's land rights in Africa - particularly Kenya and Botswana - and examined especially the conflict between customary and statutory laws, and the entitlements women enjoy under each. Somewhere between trying to understand Chinese foreign policy, parsing out the do's and don'ts of foreign aid, and attempting to decipher a U.S. policy towards Africa (a recent undertaking, to be sure), however, I seem to have placed the issue on the back burner.

A recent NYTimes article by Kristof and WuDunn has seemingly lead me back to the cause. As the piece aptly notes, focusing on women and girls may well be the most effective way of combating global poverty and extremism. For instance:

A series of studies has found that when women hold assets or gain incomes, family money is more likely to be spent on nutrition, medicine and housing, and consequently children are healthier.

This, as opposed to circumstances under which men control the assets. It has been found that men often engage in unwise spending, with the poorest families in the world spending approximately 20% of their incomes on a combination of alcohol, prostitution, candy (candy!!), sugary drinks and lavish feasts - and only 2% on the education of their children. For this reason among others, we are seeing a growing number of microfinance projects directed specifically at women. Additionally:

It has long been known that a risk factor for turbulence and violence is the share of a country’s population made up of young people. Now it is emerging that male domination of society is also a risk factor; the reasons aren’t fully understood, but it may be that when women are marginalized the nation takes on the testosterone-laden culture of a military camp or a high-school boys’ locker room.

Indeed, some scholars believe that the reason Muslim countries have been disproportionately affected by terrorism has little to do with Islamic teachings about infidels or violence, and more to do with low levels of female education and participation in the labor force. I haven't yet had the chance to gather my thoughts on the matter, but a cursory glance at global terrorist hubs and their corresponding women's rights (to the extent that we can even call them that), seemingly lends much credence to the claim.

Kristof and WuDunn ultimately argue that women's rights must be brought to the forefront of the international development agenda, as it is women who perhaps represent our best hope in the fight against global poverty. Fight on, sister, fight on.

[Image: BBC]

Where 21st century Asian socialism meets 21st century Latin American socialism

2009-08-20T09:51:00.005-04:00

Don't blink, otherwise you might miss the litany of deals China has been making across Latin America! China has recently signed oil deals with Argentina, Ecuador, and Venezuela; and has contracts and cooperation deals with governments in Brazil, Peru, Chile, Colombia, Uruguay - effectively the entire Latin American continent.

In the early stages of Sino-Latin American cooperation, China seemed to be treading rather carefully, hesitant of both its foreign policy and place on the international global stage. The recent increase in overseas activity - from Africa to Latin America, and beyond - however, suggests that Chinese confidence is rapidly growing. The global financial crisis in particular has raised skepticism over America's hitherto seemingly unwavering preeminence, and has at the same time proffered China as a viable alternative. Indeed, an increasing number of countries are now saying "thanks, but no thanks" to U.S. cooperation and assistance, choosing instead to place their faith in the Chinese. Latin America is case in point.

The strategy the Chinese are employing across the continent appears identical to that which is being pursued in Africa, with oil-for-infrastructure contracts as the primary modus operandi. Like in Africa, too, Chinese investment is manifest on many economic levels - from high level government contracts all the way down to small-scale private entrepreneurs who sell vegetables and various knick-knacks on the side of the road. What's more interesting in the case of Latin America, however, is that the partnerships appear to be much more ideologically laden than those in Africa. This is especially true in Venezuela.

In a a great video from Al Jazeera English (HT: Double Handshake), Venezuelan economics professor Jesus Farias briefly touches on the issue of the Venezuelan socialist model and its seemingly logical intersection with its Chinese counterpart (this, around 2:34). He seems to be suggesting that cooperation between China and Venezuela is predicated not only on economic exchange, but has as its broader objective the restructuring of the global political landscape. I'm not wholly certain that this is necessarily the case - or that such is the objective of other Latin American countries engaged in relations with China - but it certainly is an interesting point worthy of further consideration. Viva la revolution...?

Rebalancing U.S.-China relations à la Henry Kissinger

2009-08-19T21:48:00.006-04:00

Very rarely does one come across an authentically good foreign policy piece concerning U.S-China relations. Most analyses are highly polarized, stressing either engagement on the one hand or polarization on the other. What a joy it was to stumble upon today's Washington Post op-ed piece by Henry Kissinger! Independent of what one may think of Kissinger, his argument is an exemplar of brilliant realist foreign policy, which assumes a rather neutral position on U.S-China relations. No alarm bells or calls of 'can't we all just get along' involved. A snippet (you'll simply have to read the rest...):

China has a major interest in a stable -- and preferably growing -- U.S. economy. But China also has a growing interest in reducing its dependence on American decisions. Since American inflation as well as deflation have become for China nightmares as grave as they are for America, the two countries face the imperative of coordinating their economic policies. As America's largest creditor, China has a degree of economic leverage unprecedented in the U.S. experience. At the same time, the quest for widening the scope of independent decision exists in ambivalent combination on both sides.

Thank you for your message... again

2009-08-19T10:57:00.006-04:00

The CS Monitor has compiled a most noteworthy map of sorts detailing the content of Hilary Clinton's message on her recent trip to Africa. The image accompanies a great piece by CS contributor Tracey Samuelson from which we learn that, well, American politicians quite generally have very little to say to their African counterparts, having instead opted to master the art of recycling messages that have been touted since the 1970s - or thereabouts (Ms. Samuelson does not mention this point; I have noted it here to stress the general absurdity and lack of a U.S. policy towards Africa).

Honestly, what's the point of undertaking an extensive African tour if the message will more or less be the same across the board? Presumably it's much more efficient to go to one country, get all the points out and instruct all other African governments to "See [insert country here] for message."* Based on the CS Monitor's map, a simple trip to Angola would have more or less done the trick:

Now don't misunderstand me, the vast majority of the issues Secretary Clinton brought up are quite worthwhile and indeed applicable in the contexts in which they were raised. Yes, of course we must discuss HIV/AIDS in South Africa and the security crisis in Kenya. And given that Angolan oil exports are of particularly great importance to U.S. strategic interests, the trade terms surrounding them must also enter into discussion. I'm not at all suggesting that her rhetoric was necessarily wrong, only that it was quite generally meaningless and did absolutely nothing to carve out an American policy towards the continent. Blanket statements are fine and dandy for a time, but at a certain point it becomes necessary to delve into the nitty gritty details of policy. Well, we are well beyond that point and seemingly no such efforts are being made - not by the U.S. at least; the Chinese have been on point for quite some time now.

* I am, of course, being completely facetious in suggesting such a thing and strongly favor a much more nuanced U.S. policy towards Africa. Unfortunately, few in State have yet to catch on to this novel idea...

You thought having only one child was bad? Try having only one dog

2009-08-19T10:01:00.004-04:00

I must being today's post by noting that I have spent much of this morning getting caught up on my Bugle podcasts, which rather hinders me in my ability to take any political/IR goings-on quite seriously. For those unaware, The Bugle is an absolutely marvelous weekly satirical news podcast hosted by John Oliver (from The Daily Show) and Andy Zaltzman. Some of the humor is quite English, what with references to rugby and cricket and the like, but it is nevertheless absolutely amazing and certainly worthy of your attention.

All that being said, I appear to be finding the humor in just about everything this morning, and thus cannot help but draw this to your attention:

For decades, most Chinese residents of the southern city of Guangzhou have resigned themselves to the country's strict one-child policy. Now, a similar restriction on dogs has got them howling mad.

[...] On July 1, city authorities implemented the "one-dog policy" seen as a crackdown on the estimated 100,000 unregistered dogs in Guangzhou ahead of the Asian Games in the city next year...

The hits just keep on coming, don't they? Not only are Chinese families restricted in the number of children they can have - with severe repercussions for families who 'illegally' have more than one - but now their pet-keeping habits are also squarely under the auspices of the CCP! Evidently the reach of the government continues to run deep in China - from bedroom to kennel.

According to Chinese authorities, this so-called "one dog policy" is aimed at curtailing the spread of rabies across China. The CCP must really be running short on inspiration, however, as this is the very same excuse that was used in 2006 when the policy was implemented in Beijing. Well, three years and the slaughter of hundreds of dogs hasn't done the trick, so let's have another go at it. What logic! At least do try to mix it up a bit, guys. Surely there must be a 'Creative Propaganda Bureau' lodged in the government apparatus somewhere...

Oh, China, you never cease to amuse me.

Game theory, Iran's nuclear ambitions, and political scientists in the news

2009-08-17T10:15:00.005-04:00

(It's quite difficult to decide which of the three is most attention-grabbing, isn't it?)

It's very rare occasion indeed when a political scientist is profiled in the news these days. The vast majority of academics making front-page news are generally economists, with political scientists of the caliber of a Samuel Huntington or Joseph Nye (to name but two of the more well-known names in the business) assuming somewhat of an ambivalent position on the global, intellectual stage.

There is, moreover, ongoing debate within the field of political science over the disjuncture or applicability (depending on your point of view) of the theory of political science to its practice, with many asserting the irrelevance of the discipline to everyday political reality. It is precisely for this reason that I was quite thrilled to see the NYTimes' piece profiling the work of Bruce Bueno de Mesquita this weekend (the piece was actually published last week, but I only noticed it on Sunday!). Bueno de Mesquita is a game theorist who employs rational choice theory to predict political and foreign policy events, and is quite generally well-known for authoring the selectorate theory. While I do have several methodological bones to pick with him (I am not a subscriber to the 'rational choice trumps all' school of thought), I nevertheless find his work most interesting and indeed worthy of note.

Bueno de Mesquita's recent project is that of forecasting when and whether Iran will build a nuclear bomb:

With the help of his undergraduate class at N.Y.U., he researched the primary power brokers inside and outside the country — anyone with a stake in Iran’s nuclear future. Once he had the information he needed, he fed it into his computer model and had an answer in a few minutes.

[...] The spreadsheet included almost 90 players. Some were people, like the Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei; others were groups, like the U.N. Security Council and Iran’s “religious radicals.” Next to each player, a number represented one variable in Bueno de Mesquita’s model: the extent to which a player wanted Iran to have the ability to make nuclear weapons. The scale went from 0 to 200, with 0 being “no nuclear capacity at all” and 200 representing a test of a nuclear missile.

At the beginning of the simulation, the positions were what you would expect. The United States and Israel and most of Europe wanted Iran to have virtually no nuclear capacity, so their preferred outcomes were close to zero. In contrast, the Iranian hard-liners were aggressive. “This is not only ‘Build a bomb,’ ” Bueno de Mesquita said, characterizing their position. “It’s probably: ‘We should test a bomb.’ ”

But as the computer model ran forward in time, through 2009 and into 2010, positions shifted. American and Israeli national-security players grudgingly accepted that they could tolerate Iran having some civilian nuclear-energy capacity. Ahmadinejad, Khamenei and the religious radicals wavered; then, as the model reached our present day, their power — another variable in Bueno de Mesquita’s model — sagged significantly.

Amid the thousands of rows on the spreadsheet, there’s one called Forecast. It consists of a single number that represents the most likely consensus of all the players. It begins at 160 — bomb-making territory — but by next year settles at 118, where it doesn’t move much. “That’s the outcome,” Bueno de Mesquita said confidently, tapping the screen.

What does 118 mean? It means that Iran won’t make a nuclear bomb. By early 2010, according to the forecast, Iran will be at the brink of developing one, but then it will stop and go no further. If this computer model is right, all the dire portents we’ve seen in recent months — the brutal crackdown on protesters, the dubious confessions, Khamenei’s accusations of American subterfuge — are masking a tectonic shift. The moderates are winning, even if we cannot see that yet.

Whether you agree or disagree with his methodological approach - and indeed its outcome - it's difficult not to agree that his is a fascinating analysis. One seemingly capable of bringing political science back into the spotlight - or at the very least the NYTimes.

Noteworthy...

2009-08-17T09:47:00.004-04:00

US State Department's Africa Bureau receives less than rave reviews in a recent report from State's Office of the Inspector General

Today marks the 50th anniversary of the release of Miles Davis' Kind of Blue - the best selling jazz album of all time. Fred Kaplan examines the genius behind music (and see here for a great Legacy Recordings video tribute to the album - and Davis)

A recent International Crisis Group report briefing warns of increasing insecurity and political tension in Somalia's Puntland - a semi-autonomous region in north-eastern Somalia once touted as a success of the 'building blocks' approach to reestablishing national stability, and viewed as one of the most prosperous parts of the country

Is China revamping its climate change policy? The FT seems to think so...

Someone once told me

2009-08-14T09:58:00.005-04:00

After somewhat of a cynical and discouraging week (I really do find the lack of a discernible US policy towards Africa most upsetting), I am determined to end on an uplifting note. Ever the optimist, I suppose! I happened to stumble upon the Someone Once Told Me project completely by chance, and find it to be most charming. Photographer Mario Cacciottolo has taken over 700+ photographs of people holding hand-made signs quoting something someone once told them. The image on the left is among my favorites.

What would your sign say? A parting thought for the weekend....

2009 Failed States Index (and a map!)

2009-08-14T08:52:00.005-04:00

Foreign Policy has again joined forces with the Fund for Peace to compile the 2009 Failed States Index and a wonderful accompanying interactive map of state fragility.

The Index, which ranks 177 states in order from most to least risk of failure, is premised upon 12 social, political, economic and military indicators of state cohesion and performance, and an alleged 30,000 publicly available sources. The 12 indicators are: (1) demographic pressures; (2) refugees/IDPs; (3) group grievance; (4) human flight; (5) uneven development; (6) economic decline; (7) delegitimation of the state; (8) public services; (9) human rights; (10) security apparatus; (11) factionalized elites; (12) and external intervention. The data used are collected from May-December of the preceding year (in this case 2008). More information pertaining to the methodology employed may be found here.

According to the 2009 Index, the ten most fragile states are: (1) Somalia; (2) Zimbabwe; (3) Sudan; (4) Chad; (5) the Congo; (6) Iraq; (7) Afghanistan; (8) Central African Republic; (9) Guinea; (10) and Pakistan. This marks only slight shifts from 2008. No longer included in the top ten is Cote d'Ivoire, which has moved from #8 to #.. well, it appears to be absent from the 2009 ranking! Curious. Guinea, which in 2008 was #11 has now moved up to #9. Beyond this unfortunate bunch, other discernible jumps are those of Kenya (#26 to #14), Georgia (#57 to #33), Iran (#49 to #38), and China's appearance in the top sixty, at #57. Naturally, Norway, followed by Finland and Sweden remain the most stable.

Whither America's Africa policy? No, seriously. Where is it?

2009-08-13T11:41:00.004-04:00

I really can do no better today than to direct you to Shashank's well thought out post in which he concludes:

After seven months, a presidential visit and now this major trip, it's still unclear what the Obama administration wants to do differently in Africa. The most important U.S. agency that works on Africa, USAID, still has no leader. Clinton's trip was full of the same hopeful but canned rhetoric about "good governance," "food security" and "helping Africans help themselves." Folks who care about Africa hardly expect the continent to be the Obama administration's No. 1 foreign policy priority. But they will be disappointed with this trip.

Not only is it disappointing, but it's actually quite laughable - and not in a joyous laughter sort of way. I really don't understand how anyone is meant to take US policy towards Africa (the presently non-existent policy, mind you) seriously when the country's own Secretary of State makes such ridiculous statements as her proposal for camcorders in the Congo, and her lending of support to Somalia's Sheik Sharif - evidently unaware of the consequences - among others. Her utterly distasteful outburst in the Congo doesn't do much to bolster her, or American, credibility either (surely there was a classier, more professional way of handling the matter, even if it upset you, Madame Secretary), and neither does her outlandish comparison of the 2000 Florida recount to Nigeria's rigged elections. I am terribly sorry to discover that she is still seemingly bitter over the matter, but drawing such faulty moral equivalences jeopardizes the advance of democracy in countries like Nigeria and others across Africa where corruption is rampant. To draw my own comparison, the ridiculousness implicit in such a statement is tantamount to that which would compare women's rights in, say, Sierra Leone - the worst place in Africa to be a woman according to the 2008 UN Human Development Report - to those in the United States. Think on that.

While Secretary Clinton may be dancing away across the continent, the U.S. missed a prime opportunity to seriously engage with African leaders on matters of trade, foreign assistance, human rights - heck, even the objectives behind AFRICOM - and other matters of actual consequence to the continent. It's little wonder that African leaders are more seriously engaging with the Chinese as regards their countries' needs and policies. I probably would, too.

I can answer #1, but not #2....

2009-08-13T11:29:00.006-04:00

Go figure.

[From Drawings: Ted McCagg, HT: The Monkey Cage]

Why has China grown faster than India? And what (if anything) does this mean for Africa?

2009-08-12T09:32:00.007-04:00

Chris Blattman and Bill Easterly address the issue. See here, here and here for a great discussion.

While I find myself nodding in agreement with much of what both experts have to say, I hesitate slightly when discussion turns to a near-comparison between growth in China and Africa. While neither scholar seems to be suggesting that China's path to growth can inform a similar phenomenon in Africa - or otherwise delving into very nuanced discussion of the similarities and differences between the process in both regions - I nevertheless feel inclined to caution against any such analogies. There are, of course, lessons which various African countries can learn from China - particularly as regards agricultural policies - but there are many constraints which hinder a direct, general analysis.

Martin Ravallion of the World Bank's Development Research Group has compiled a brilliant presentation highlighting precisely these constraints. Foremost among them:

Africa's higher levels of income inequality. At the time of China's economic reform, inequality was lower in China (a Gini index well under 30%) than found in all but a couple countries in sub-Saharan Africa today
The continent's high dependency rates
Africa's low population density, which impacts on matters such as technological innovation and the cost of supplying certain forms of basic infrastructure
Africa's weaker state institutions (Blattman's point about differing political climes, etc.)

Of course drawing any comparisons between China and Africa is also somewhat ridiculous, as we're dealing with one country and an entire continent. While this is quite an obvious point to make, you would be surprised at how many people conflate the two.

In short, there are many factors which preclude one from deducing too much about growth in Africa based on how it was played out in China. From my reading, both Easterly and Blattman appear on the brink of such an analysis, but quite wisely never take the plunge. It is precisely for this reason that theirs proves a truly worthwhile debate. Do read it.

Of rape, video cameras, and Clinton in the Congo. What did I miss?

2009-08-12T01:35:00.000-04:00

I forthrightly admit that neither am I an expert in matters pertaining to the Congo, nor do I know much about preventing or otherwise dealing with cases of rape - in the Congo or elsewhere. Having said that, I'm quite certain that I'm not the only one absolutely baffled (floored is more like it, actually) by Hilary Clinton's announcement yesterday of a $17 million plan to combat the abysmal levels of sexual violence in the Congo, part of which entails "supplying rape victims with video cameras to document the violence." Really? Video cameras? To rape victims? Hmm.....

Texas in Africa and the ladies at Wronging Rights have virtually summed up my thoughts on the matter quite well, raising among other matters questions pertaining to who, exactly, will be receiving said camcorders; where the footage will be sent (do bear in mind that both the Congolese government and military hierarchy are quite generally unwilling to prosecute rape perpetrators); and indeed how the camcorders will be charged given that the country lacks a power grid on which to charge portable electronic devices (a most astute observation). Might I also add that it is most, most improbable that a rapist will cease his evil actions upon being confronted with a recording device. Again, while claiming absolutely no expertise on the matter, intuition leads me to believe that he might indeed become more violent in his actions.

Given all of these considerations and quandries, what on earth would lead someone to believe that video cameras are part and parcel of the solution to combatting rape in the Congo? Having brought my initial frustrations over the matter under control, I began to ponder the logic by which one could possibly arrive at such a conclusion. A cursory glance through my Google history is enough to frighten just about anyone, with phrases like "rape victim, video"; "rape, congo"; "rape, video, persecution" floating about - evidence of my feeble attempt at discovering existing cases (in the developing world) where video cameras effectively served as preventative measures or lead to the prosecution of the perpetrators; or otherwise research suggesting that the distribution of such devices may indeed be the way forward. Presumably Clinton's statement is premised on some research that someone must have conducted at some point in time, right?

Maybe I'm not a very diligent Googler (though this is highly doubtful; of the countless skills one acquires whilst writing a Master's dissertation and subsequently tackling a PhD, Googling ranks quite high among them), but the results of my several hours of searching are indeed just as laughable as the proposition in question. Among my findings/musings:

Video footage of rape acts has in some cases lead to the persecution and conviction of the perpetrators (see here, here, here and here, for instance), but in all such cases the acts were documented by either the perpetrators themselves or their cronies, or otherwise a passerby who happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time - or indeed the right place at the right time, depending on your perspective. I wasn't able to find a single case in which a rape act was prevented or otherwise persecuted in which the victim was the one pressing the 'record' button. Perhaps Secretary Clinton has a CCTV-style system in mind, but then where would you install the cameras?
According to a recent Human Rights Watch report, a significant percentage of rapes in the Congo are committed by senior army officials, over whom the government and donors have little leverage. This ties into the earlier point regarding where footage would be sent and how it would be handled upon receipt. It moreover leads one to conclude that the focus should be on combatting the overall culture of corruption, rather than the supplying of video cameras. Alas.
Suggesting video cameras as a means by which rape victims can "document the violence" operates on the assumption that the victims will bring such videos forward as evidence (though we still haven't established to whom). The problem with this, though, is that rape victims in the Congo - and elsewhere in Africa - are often grossly stigmatized, and in some cases jailed. Given such a reality, documenting the act (especially by the victim) may prove quite counterproductive.
If the surrounding culture is one laden with corruption and embodying "entrenched notions of gender hierarchy and the sexual entitlement of men" (to quote Prof. Rachel Jewkes of the Medical Research Council speaking on South Africa's culture of sexual violence), video footage isn't going to assist victims in any significant way. Such measures will only be effective if the external environment is one in which such acts are outrightly condemned, of which the Congo isn't (yet) one.

I really could go on, but would nevertheless fail to understand how the camcorder proposition makes sense - or indeed discover any research suggesting its merits in the developing world. The effective use of camcorders for such means in the Western context is a moot point in my opinion, precisely because the surrounding culture is one in which acts of sexual violence are not only regarded with contempt, but are severely punished. While I'm sure Clinton's suggestion is well-intentioned and put forward with all the right motives, I cringe at such cases of "headless hearts" - arguably my favorite of Paul Collier's phrases - who fail to properly understand the realities of the countries they are somehow hoping to save. Inevitably, the law of unintended consequences always prevails. And while I certainly am no expert on the Congo, even I can make out the blatant flaws implicit in such a proposition. One would hope that the U.S. government could, too.

But then again, I'm no expert. Will someone please kindly inform me: what did I miss? ....

Update: For a different perspective on the issue of "Camcorders for the Congo," see Shshank Bengali's post. I'm not sure that it lends any credibility to the proposition, but it does well to suggest that this isn't the craziest U.S. initiative for Africa. I'm sure it ranks up there, though...

Noteworthy...

2009-08-11T09:06:00.004-04:00

My goodness, where to begin? ....

Harvard (yes, that Harvard) is branching out beyond the world of academia to establish its own 'preppy' fashion line. I suppose it's quite safe to say that the university's economic woes must truly be taking a toll...

Adam Hothchild's "Rape of the Congo" from this edition of the NYRB. Quite apropos given Secretary Clinton's current visit there

Iran and China have just signed a $3 billion oil deal, wherein which China is to help develop Iran's refinery capacity in Abadan and the Gulf. Nearly one-fourth of Iran's petroleum exports already go to China

Buying mines in Africa and the question of China's soft power. Alternatively titled: Chinese adventures in the African resource market, as told by Sheishi (whoever she may be)

Slightly tardy (on my end), though nevertheless most worthwhile: via Aid Watch a review of Michaela Wrong's book, It's Our Turn to Eat: The Story of a Kenyan Whistle-Blower

Feeling the African beat... in Beijing

2009-08-11T08:44:00.002-04:00

Afrokoko Roots is a 15-piece international Afrobeat band, formed by Ghanian/Nigerian percussionist and vocalist Sunny Dada (what a great name!). The members of the band hail from Ghana, Nigeria, Uganda, Burundi, the USA, the Philippines and China, and together perform Afrobeat style music and reggae classics. The band is based out of Beijing (!) and is performing tomorrow - Wednesday, 12 August - at Yugong Yishan, should any of you find yourself in the area.

[HT: Danwei]

Over-exaggerated Asian scrambles and praise-worthy Angolan management on a Monday morning

2009-08-10T10:20:00.003-04:00

Chatham House released a new report today which provides a comparative study of the impact of Asian oil companies on Nigeria and Angola - the two leading oil-producing companies in sub-Saharan Africa. While the report considers Indian, South Korean and Japanese national oil companies, the primary focus is on Chinese oil strategy. Specifically, the report considers why Chinese oil strategy has been - and remains - so successful; how it is that Angola emerged as the second largest supplier of oil to China in 2008; how Chinese companies negotiate deals; and how such deals benefit Angola and Nigeria, respectively.

Among the more interesting findings emanating from the report is that which suggests that Angola does not fit the stereotype of a weak African state being exploited by the resource-hungry Chinese. Indeed, the Angolan government has been quite successful in managing its relationships with China and its oil companies, as well as handling its own version of the oil-for infrastructure scheme. The case of Angola is contrasted with Nigeria, where the Obasanjo government largely failed to manage the scheme:

While Nigeria was playing politics with its Asian partners, Angola was driven by economic necessity to quickly access funds to finance its reconstruction [...]

[...] The scale of corruption, mismanagement and non-execution of projects in the Obasanjo years has sent shockwaves through Nigeria. [...] His intentions were good but officials failed to spell out the full implications of the scheme. And many used the scheme for private profit.

The report further suggests that Western fears about an Asian takeover in the Nigerian and Angolan oil sectors are highly exaggerated:

Except for Japan, [Asian oil companies] only acquired equity participation in both countries in the last five years. More important, the [western] oil majors remain the leading players in both countries. They dominate production and hold the majority of reserves.

While Western oil companies do, indeed, still own much of Africa's oil reserves, the Chinese scramble for African soil should not be downplayed. As the report itself notes, Angola is now the second largest supplier of oil to China, with Nigeria, the Congo, Kenya, and other oil-producing states not too far behind. In 2005, China imported nearly 701,000 bpd of oil from Africa - approximately 30% of its total oil imports. This figure has been rising in recent years, and is estimated to reach some 40-50% in the next decade.

The full report - Thirst for African Oil: National Oil Companies in Nigeria and Angola - may be found here.

On IR theory and the African challenge

2009-08-10T09:24:00.004-04:00

Via Ryan C. Briggs I happened across a great site - Theory Talks - which serves as an interactive forum for discussion of debates in IR (international relations) with especial emphasis on the underlying theoretical issues. If you're like me, teasing out the appropriate theoretical framework for one's work is often the most challenging part of any research project, which is why I greatly appreciate what Theory Talks is trying to do. While the site certainly won't help to sort a framework for individual projects, it does present interesting perspectives and raise fascinating debates on issues surrounding the ever-evolving discipline that is IR.

Among the more curious "talks" I found (and there are quite a few!) is that by Kevin C. Dunn, visiting professor at Mbarara University in Uganda, who has written extensively on African politics with especial focus on the Congo. Dunn argues that images of countries (like the Congo, for instance) are often social constructions, which renders field work for the "white man" a very biased field, indeed:

The identity of the Congo, like other social identities, has been formed by being located within the narratives that we use to know, understand, and make sense of the social world. Narratives of national identities are formed by a gradual layering on and connecting of events and meanings, usually through three steps: the selection of events themselves, the linking of these events to each other in causal and associational ways (plotting), and interpreting what the events and plots signify. The example of the Congo is illuminating because it shows how these identity-constructing narratives are rarely the exclusive product of a state’s policy makers. External forces are constantly at play, seeking to select, plot and interpret the events and meanings by which identities are narrated.

The central thesis of Dunn's talk is that IR scholars are political actors as much as the phenomena they study. Being as such, it is inevitable that their research and findings are biased based on their constructed perceptions of their respective subject matters. Such bias, Dunn argues, is particularly pronounced in research focused on Africa, much of which is approached from a North American/Western European perspective where an idealized North American/Western European state is taken as the norm. Dunn's is an interesting discussion, and certainly one worth reading for any IR scholars with a focus on Africa.

For all African-centric theoretical debates see here.

In which my faith in the USPS is temporarily restored

2009-08-07T10:50:00.005-04:00

I've been based in the US for the past few months and in a few short weeks will be returning to my beloved Oxford to continue with my PhD work. I'm thrilled to be heading back, though am ever so slightly intimidated by the amount of things I've managed to accumulate during my time here; things that I somehow need to transport back across the pond. Foremost among these are books.

It seems that everywhere I traveled over the past few months I stumbled upon wonderful used and collector bookshops: Raven Books in Cambridge, MA; the always-wonderful Strand in NYC; Bookman Bookwoman in Nashville; and of course my beloved Bookman's Alley in Evanston, where I passed many a day while an undergraduate at Northwestern. Not being one to resist the temptation of a good read, I've managed to acquire quite a large collection which must now find its way to England. The lingering question, is how?

Just yesterday I stumbled across a service hosted by USPS - M bags - through which one can mail printed material overseas for a reduced rate. You're charged $35 for 11 lbs., and $3 for every additional pound. It's not the most amazing of bargains, but it is generally quite cheaper than what one would otherwise pay. Fabulous! It's so wonderful to discover that the postal service is kind to bibliophiles such as myself! Has anyone used this service and is it indeed recommended? Is anyone aware of other cost-efficient ways of transporting books overseas? Thoughts, comments, insights would be well appreciated!

Oh yes, and do have an enjoyable weekend!

Africa does not need more hot air

2009-08-07T09:14:00.007-04:00

I must admit that I've been rather disappointed with the present US administration's policies towards Africa. To be perfectly frank, I was much happier with America's African policies under Bush (*gasp* yes, I said it), with few exceptions (AFRICOM, which I have spoken about in the past) is indubitably one of them. What Bush tried to do - and was moderately successful in achieving - was positively engaging with the continent: increasing development assistance where needed, introducing programs to reduce the burden of AIDS and malaria, AGOA, working to secure a peace deal between north and south Sudan in 2005, etc. His policies weren't perfect - many were seriously flawed - but there appeared to be a genuine sense of engagement and interest. Whether that was driven by humanitarian goodwill or geopolitical interests I will leave for you to decide; the point is that the US appeared to be active in creating opportunity for Africans. In short, they not only talked the talk, but walked the walk.

Not only does the Obama administration appear disinterested, but it is seemingly failing to capitalize on opportunities where they exist. I bring this up because Hilary Clinton is presently in Africa. Like many others, I am following the news hoping to discover something - anything - of substance (indeed, something to blog about!), but am seemingly failing in this endeavor (if someone has managed to stumble upon anything worthwhile pertaining to Clinton's time in Africa, do please send it my way). Her rhetoric - much like President Obama's in Ghana earlier this year - is filled with the same empty jargon uttered by Western politicians of yore. Yes, Kenya needs to reform; and yes, we all know that the continent has "enormous potential for progress;" and we all understand the importance of stability in Somalia. Blah, blah, blah. By the by, overemphasizing agricultural policy to the neglect of manufacturing and entrepreneurship does little to foster sustainable development across the continent. And publicly making promises to Somalia's Sheik Sharif is tantamount to wishing death upon his administration. While I do understand that the trip was all quite last minute, there are some things on which a Secretary of State must absolutely be briefed.

While I do further realize that Africa isn't much of a priority for the US government at present (a grave flaw, indeed, given especially China's growing influence across the continent!) and is constrained by the financial crisis and domestic politics, there are things the administration can do besides simply blowing about hot air: increasing diplomacy with leading economies, improving foreign assistance and trade, and being actively involved in the prevention and resolution of conflicts, are foremost among them. Indeed, if the United States seeks genuine relations with African nations, it is in the interest of both parties to move beyond the one-dimensional quality that characterizes them today. One of my favorite bloggers, Texas in Africa, has an absolutely brilliant open letter to Secretary Clinton posted today in which she stresses precisely this point, and goes even further to suggest how the US might actively work to aid the continent. The post is focused primarily on the Congo, but several of the points are indeed quite applicable elsewhere around the continent. Its message even more so.

Where do I sign?

[image: the NYTimes]

Anti-Chinese sentiment in Africa maybe really isn't

2009-08-05T10:27:00.005-04:00

Well, add Algeria to the list (the ever-growing list of countries where anti-Chinese sentiment is high: Zambia, Ethiopia, Lesotho, Namibia, Angola, Kenya....). Reports from Afrik.com suggest growing xenophobia against Chinese is now escalating in Algeria, where job seekers are blaming the country's growing unemployment rate on the increased number of emigrants living in the country and working for meager pay:

On Tuesday, a fight broke out between Algerians and Chinese, after a disagreement between an Algerian shopkeeper and a Chinese migrant worker in Algeria’s Bab Ezzouar district. According to reports, ten Chinese migrants were injured and two Chinese shops looted in the fight.
In July, an al-Qaeda-linked group threatened to target Chinese workers in north Africa, following June 26 Mass factory brawl between Han Chinese and Muslim Uighurs in southern China, where hundreds were killed. In response to the report, the Chinese embassy in Algiers urged all 50,000 Chinese who live and work in Algeria to be more aware of safety precautions.

Unfortunately such outbursts are popping up all over the place. In Zambia, the 2006 presidential election effectively turned on the Chinese presence, with opposition candidate Michael Sata vowing to expel all Chinese workers if elected. While he ended up losing the presidential seat, he did win in Lusaka and the Copperbelt - the two regions where the Chinese presence is most pronounced. Similar (albeit not political) dissatisfaction erupted in Lesotho last year, when rioters began attacking Chinese businesses; in Namibia this year with increased worker casualties; in Kenya, as the unemployment rate soars... And the beat goes on.

I'm inclined to suggest that such outbursts are not anti-Chinese outbursts per se, but rather symptoms of a much greater problem. With increased poverty, unemployment, a general lack of functioning institutions, it should come as little surprise that Africans are angry with those who appear to be exacerbating these pre-existing realities. There are, of course, serious concerns surrounding Chinese hiring practices for which the Chinese alone are responsible; at the same time, it seems that the burden of rising unemployment rests as much with African governments as it does with Chinese workers. Many governments have yet to implement policies regulating Chinese (or foreign more generally) entrepreneurship, or ones which might genuinely stimulate domestic economic activity. The underlying problem of all this xenophobia may indeed not be the Chinese themselves, but rather poor institutional environments with little opportunity for economic mobility and governments which are seemingly doing little about it. Indeed, it seems that there is more than just one issue at play here.

Noteworthy...

2009-08-04T14:38:00.005-04:00

I had it in my mind to write something substantial here today, as there is indeed very much to talk about. Unfortunately I'm a bit under the weather and fear that any attempts at coherent argument or analysis will fall flat - and fast! Ergo, today's noteworthy reads...

Fred Kaplan asks: What's Bill Clinton doing in Pyongyang?

Perhaps the answer has something (or everything) to do with news that Burma is secretly building nukes

A great project in northern Uganda - Women's Income Generating Support - headed by Chris Blattman and Jeannie Annan provides women with grants and business training

Might China agree to an oil embargo on Iran?

What to do about climate change induced migration in Ghana (and arguably elsewhere)

On the militarization of foreign assistance, and why it should remain the road less traveled

2009-08-03T10:33:00.005-04:00

Further to last week's post on American military bases in Africa, Foreign Policy's William Moseley argues for a halt to the militarization of humanitarian aid across Africa. While Moseley is focused primarily on Mali, where he has been engaged in development work for some 20+ odd years, his line of reasoning may well be applied elsewhere in the continent:

In the West African country of Mali [...] there has been low-grade al Qaeda activity occurring in the northern frontier over the past few years. The marginal desert region between Mali and its neighbors is appealing real estate for would-be terrorists because it is difficult to control and monitor. It provides space for camps and opportunities for terrorist cells to tax cross-border trade and occasionally kidnap foreign nationals for ransom. The U.S. government provides assistance to Mali's military to manage and contain the few, mostly foreign, al Qaeda bands in this small area of the country.

But now the U.S. military is getting involved in development work across Mali and in several other countries in the Sahel region of West Africa -- as it did in Iraq and Afghanistan -- despite the de minimis al Qaeda threat. Now, military personnel repair schools, wells, health centers, roads, and bridges. Army doctors provide basic treatment and vaccinations. In fiscal year 2008, the Defense Department gave the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) mission in Mali $9.5 million to run a counterterrorism program, with close coordination between the two. The program provides curriculum advice to Koranic schools and job training for young men (who are seen as highly susceptible to Islamist rhetoric). USAID has also built 14 community radio stations that broadcast programming on peace and tolerance.
But this reframing of aid to Mali within the fight against terrorism could prove counterproductive. The Pentagon has taken its conceptualization of the fight against al Qaeda in war zones and applied it broadly in a peaceful country. In the past, U.S. involvement in West African countries like Mali has focused intently on humanitarian assistance, not a geopolitical agenda.

Indeed, once you increase military involvement in development work to such an extent, such work comes to be viewed by locals as part of a broader military campaign. And while this is quite justified in conflict situations - as are Iraq and Afghanistan, for instance - it may indeed prove counterproductive in an altogether peaceful country, like Mali. While I have absolutely no problem with the U.S. military - or any other foreign military, for that matter - assisting the Malian army in managing the terrorist threat (even running a counterterrorism program if it feels so inclined and such a program is deemed to be of value), I do agree that military involvement in aspects of humanitarian aid in which other agencies are already active, and in many cases better suited, may elevate tensions rather than effectively assisting communities in their needs. This is not to suggest that all military-operated foreign assistance programs be dismantled, but rather that other existing alternatives exhausted before such a path is pursued. And with so many other alternatives, such a path should very rarely be embarked upon.

Decoupling? No, a new coupling

2009-08-03T10:02:00.006-04:00

Over the weekend The NYTimes had a rather cliched though nevertheless worthwhile article on declining foreign investments in Africa. This, as a consequence of the global financial crisis:

When the credit crisis erupted in September, many experts thought that Africa would be spared the financial turmoil of the American and European financial systems, because African banks had almost none of their assets tied up in the global subprime market.

But it has recently become clear that Africa is being hit hard. The World Bank estimates that its economies will grow an average of 3 percent this year, compared with an annual average of 6 percent from 2004 to 2008.

“The crisis could not have come at a worse time,” said Jose Gijon, chief Africa economist at the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development, based in Paris. “Before the meltdown, many African countries had made significant progress in attracting foreign investment and private capital, and this could derail those efforts.”

But one must not forget about the Chinese, who show no intention of curtailing their African investments. Quite the contrary, really:

China which has become a major investor and trading partner for Africa, continues to invest. The China-Africa Development Fund, which has invested nearly $400 million in projects in Africa, said it planned to raise an additional $2 billion by November. African groups are also continuing to pump money into projects ranging from telecommunications to new oil fields.

Indeed, many in Africa believe that it is China - and China alone - that will spur and sustain the continent's growth. In the words of Martyn Davies, the relationship between China and the African continent is not decoupling - as is the case now between many emerging economies and America, for instance - but rather a "New Coupling." Africa is still open for business, and the Chinese are the continent's main customers.

Literary must-not-reads

2009-07-31T11:13:00.004-04:00

Who would have thought: a 'what not to read' booklist (quite short, mind you; and I'm not sure I entirely agree with the selections, but there it is, nevertheless)! Via The Second Pass readers are warned of the 'must-read' classics they really ought not to read. Sadly it's quite late for me, as I have endured the alleged boredom of at least half of these literary works, but perhaps you still have the chance to save yourself. And if you desire some suggested readings, do check out The Second Pass' shelf. What a delightfully curious little book blog !....

Happy weekend, everyone; and happy reading, too!

Uncle Sam's African footprint

2009-07-31T10:17:00.007-04:00

This week's issue of The New Statesman has a curious map tracking America's 'military footprint' around the world (i.e. the global distribution of American military bases):

From the map it is quite clear that the majority of U.S. bases are found in parts of Europe and the Middle East. In Africa, bases are located in Algeria, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Liberia, Mali, Mauritania, Morocco, Niger, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, Tunisia, and Uganda. Many of these countries were considered for the home of AFRICOM, the US-Africa military command established under Bush (Esquire, of all places, had a great piece on the Africa Command programme back in 2007. Certainly worth a read!)

Many African states have been - and remain - quite vocal over their displeasure with the presence of such bases, maintaining that they constitute a direct violation of their sovereignty. Equally so, other states appear quite enthused to garner the assistance of the United States military in dealing with various regional issues. While I do certainly have my opinions on the matter, none are yet fixed in stone. What are your thoughts on U.S. military presence in Africa?

Chinese agricultural techniques and African development: a hope for better things to come

2009-07-30T10:53:00.005-04:00

China has been having a bit of a rough go here on China in Africa this week. First it's found to be de-industrializing other developing nations, then peddling fake drugs in Africa, its media outlets producing questionable maps, and today victimizing African labourers. Not at all a very rosy picture! There is good news, however: a report commissioned by the African Agricultural Technology Foundation (AATF) and prepared by my colleagues at the Centre for Chinese Studies at the University of Stellenbosch, finds that the very technologies employed in China's agricultural boom might be appropriate - and indeed highly beneficial - in the African context.

The report - "The Relevance of Chinese Agricultural Technologies for African Smallholder Farmers: Agricultural Technology Research in China" - finds that of particular benefit are water-saving technologies and soil-related techniques such as tilage and planting methods. Evidently, small-scale African farmers face similar challenges as do their Chinese counterparts, and there is much in the way of technology and knowledge exchange that might benefit the former. According to the report, Chinese experts are especially focused on seed and rice technologies, particularly in Benin, Cameroon, Congo, Ethiopia, Liberia, Mozambique, Rwanda, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Togo, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Rapid advances in seed technology and new plant varieties have been a major factor in China's crop production increases, and it is believed that similar advancements may facilitate an agricultural boom across Africa.

In Mozambique, a 52 hectare agricultural demonstration centre is planned west of Maputo, at Boane. According to the report, crops will be planted this year to test whether the Mozambican climate is suited for various varieties of seeds, including maize, rice, vegetables and fruit. In Kampala, Uganda, Chinese contractors are building an aquaculture demonstration centre. The centre is envisaged to generate knowledge for fish farmers, fishers and researchers in the country.

The agricultural sector employs approximately 65% of Africa's population, and is the largest private sector on the continent. Poor agricultural planning, weak land tenure policies, and a low capacity to adapt to changing circumstances and markets have, however, generally hindered the sector from becoming a productive, profitable business. While the Chinese are incapable of ameliorating all these troubles, they may do well to provide the relevant technologies to farmers and place Africa's agricultural sector back on track to success. Fingers crossed.

"Among the worst employers everywhere"

2009-07-30T09:53:00.002-04:00

Via Global Dispatch's Erin Conway-Smith I'm reminded of a report I've been meaning to link to for some time, but have continuously forgotten to do so - apologies! In May, the African Labour Research Network released a great 400+ page report on the labour conditions maintained by Chinese-operated firms in Africa. The report - "Chinese Investments in Africa: A Labour Perspective" - focuses especially on the cases of Angola, Botswana, Ghana, Malawi, Namibia, Nigeria, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe, among the nations where the Chinese presence is most pronounced, and with which trade is particularly high.

Unfortunately for the Chinese, the findings are not at all favorable towards them. Quite generally, the report finds:

Chinese employers tend to be amongst the lowest paying in Africa when compared with other companies in the same sector. In Zambia, for example, the Chinese copper mine paid its workers 30% less than other copper mines in the country. In general, Chinese companies do not grant African workers any meaningful benefits and in some instances ignore even those that are prescribed by law. Wages above the national average were only found at those Chinese companies with a strong trade union presence. Chinese staff members enjoy significantly higher wages and more benefits than their African counterparts.

Collective bargaining hardly takes place in Chinese companies. They resort to union bashing strategies to discourage their workers from joining a trade union. In many instances, Chinese businesses were supported by host governments who defended Chinese investments against the demands of labour. Trade unions see the practices of Chinese companies as a threat to the limited social protection that unions have achieved over the years through collective bargaining.

In Namibia, for instance, some workers are paid $0.55 an hour by a Chinese company that is building the new Works and Transport Ministry headquarters - about half the legal minimum wage of $1.10 per hour for entry-level construction workers. In many cases workers don't wear safety helmets, as they are often required to pay for their own safety equipment - an investment they can ill afford. At a construction company in Malawi, too, workers had to mix cement with their bare hands. Many labour for 12 hours a day, 7 days a week. The general work day in much of Africa is 8 hours.

Of course it's difficult to expect high standards of working conditions in Chinese firms in Africa when Chinese firms in China don't fare any better. As I noted nearly a year ago, it's quite difficult to expect Chinese employers to improve labour conditions for foreign nationals working in their firms, when they have yet to do so for their own compatriots. For African states, the solution lies in legally regulating working conditions. But as the South African case demonstrates, where in place even such edicts are being circumvented. Thus while Africa stands to benefit from increased Chinese investment as such, it similarly stands to lose if such conditions continue. Change must occur, the lingering question is how.

Fake drugs in Africa? Don't blame the Indians - at least not entirely

2009-07-29T10:25:00.005-04:00

Chinese-made drugs which are dangerous or otherwise fake are evidently being sold in parts of Africa with "made in India" labels, much to the detriment of the Indian pharmaceutical industry's inroads into West Africa. This problem appears to be especially pronounced in Nigeria, where Indian generic drugs are the preferred choice of importers:

Chinese, and now Indian, companies have been accused of selling fake drugs in Nigeria's $298-million pharmaceutical market, nearly 60 per cent of which comprises imports.

Although, the $298 figure looks small, it is attractive to fake drug manufacturers. According to a survey conducted in Nigeria in 2007, fake drugs make up for over 50 per cent of all drug sales in th country. The Pharmaceutical Society of Nigeria, puts the figure of fake drugs circulating in the country at nearly 70 per cent.

[HT: Appfrica]

What's wrong with this picture?

2009-07-29T09:41:00.009-04:00

Via Joshua Keating we learn that China's Economic Observer has put together the following map of overseas expansions by CNOOC, CNPC and Sinopec - China's three major oil giants. Click here to access the interactive version, which provides (only some) added information:

Now I don't know about you, but I find this map to be highly inaccurate, and not just because the African countries have been mislabeled. The map grossly under-represents China's oil ventures in Africa; it's quite laughable, really! As Keating aptly observes, Sudan, where CNPC has extensive and very controversial holdings is absent. So is Niger, Gabon, Ethiopia (Sinopec is especially active in both); my goodness, where is Angola? Or Chad, for that matter? Kenya, Equatorial Guinea, and Algeria are all conspicuously absent as well. I really could go on. And while I'm not especially well-versed in China's energy holdings and exploration activities in Latin America, I'd venture to guess that the map greatly underestimates its ventures there, as well.

To be perfectly honest I feel as though I must be missing something; as though the map is intended to highlight specific cases of China's overseas oil activities, for instance, or perhaps is otherwise well outdated. Unfortunately, neither appears to be the case. There's no indication of any singling out of countries, and the sentence which begins "With China's recent $7.2 billion acquisition of oil explorer Addax Petroleum...." indicates that this map is very recent (Sinopec bought Addax in June of this year). So why in the world would the Observer put together such a misguided map? Is the Chinese public so unaware of its country's overseas activities, or do they think we are?

Has China de-industrialized other developing countries?

2009-07-28T09:37:00.004-04:00

Via VoxEU Jorg Mayer and Adrian Wood say 'yes':

A common concern is that China’s opening to trade has de-industrialised other developing countries. Their labour-intensive manufacturing has been hit by Chinese competition in their home markets – a complaint often heard in Africa and Latin America – and in export markets, while their primary exports have been pulled up by Chinese demand. This mixture of effects is worrying because industrialisation is vital for development, manufacturing provides jobs, and the ownership of natural resources is often highly unequal – so the net impact of China could be both slower growth and greater inequality in the rest of the developing world.

Standard trade theory is consistent with these concerns. The impact of China on other countries can be interpreted in a Heckscher-Ohlin model as occurring through a shift in world average factor endowments. The comparative advantage of a country depends on its endowments not in isolation but relative to the endowments of all other countries involved in trade. This comparator group was altered by China’s emergence from near-autarky, because of its size and distinctive endowment structure, and hence so was the comparative advantage of other countries.

More specifically, China’s opening to trade effectively lowered the world average land/labour ratio and increased the share of workers with a basic education in the world labour force. The relative endowments of other countries were thus shifted in the opposite directions, which tended to move their comparative advantage away from labour-intensive manufacturing, which requires many workers with a basic education but little land. The corresponding increase in comparative advantage for developing countries was in primary production, which uses a lot of land relative to labour.

Mayer and Wood present data depicting average changes in ratios of labor-intensive manufacturing in primary production in the 1980s and 1990s, and the differences between these decades, for output and two sets of export data. From this data it appears that the bulk of China's impact was concentrated in the 1990s. Figures from Kenya, Mauritius and South Africa further show negative differences between output and export ratios, which is consistent with the expected impact of China proffered by standard trade theory.

Show us the money (for health) !!

2009-07-28T09:17:00.004-04:00

Namibia-based AIDS activist group, AIDS & Rights Alliance for Southern Africa, has compiled a creative video campaign to bring attention to the seemingly forgotten 2001 pledge made by African leaders to devote 15% of their national budgets to healthcare. Eight years later, nearly all countries have failed to meet this target.

The ARASA video, "Lords of the Bling (Vol. 1)" (funny because it's true, I suppose!) depicts the amount of treatment that could be paid for with the amount of money spent on extravagant purchases and events by the continent's political leaders. The figures are absolutely startling:

[HT: Shashank Bengali]

Noteworthy….

2009-07-27T08:56:00.007-04:00

China cracks down on civil society, making a case of the Open Constitution Initiative (OCI)

A coffee shortage in Venezuela? (Evidently I can't seem to leave the coffee theme from last week. Apologies.)

Who stereotyped whom? A different perspective on the 'Gates-Gate' controversy

On crime, security and corruption in Africa; new findings from Enterprise Surveys

Diplomacy 101 from Joe Biden. Quite frankly, it just makes me want to cry (and not tears of joy, mind you!)

New Chinese television channel targets North Africa, Middle East

2009-07-27T08:38:00.004-04:00

China is continuing to make inroads into Africa, now with a clear view of targeting the continent's Arab population as well as the Middle East more generally. Via the New York Times:

Chinese state television has begun broadcasting an Arabic-language channel for the Middle East and Africa as part of efforts to expand the Communist government’s media influence abroad. The 24-hour channel, which began operating Saturday, will air in 22 Arabic-speaking countries and reach nearly 300 million people, China Central Television said in a statement. The channel “will serve as an important bridge to strengthen communication and understanding between China and Arab countries,” a CCTV vice president, Zhang Changming, said in the statement.
[...] The Arabic channel will carry news, feature stories, entertainment and education programs and will gradually expand its offerings, CCTV said. The network already broadcasts in English, French and Spanish as well as in Mandarin.

Chinese soft power at its finest.

On Jay-Z as the world's greatest hegemon and rapping feuds as exemplars of soft power politics

2009-07-24T09:51:00.005-04:00

It really doesn't get any better than this. Marc Lynch, a professor at George Washington University and director of the Institute of Middle East Studies, has taken to explaining international relations via the world of rap:

The way that rappers compete with each other — this is soft power. [...] This is the way you try and make a reputation, try and get what you want, and you have to do it through this very intricate series of alliances.

Particularly telling according to Lynch is the ongoing feud between rapper Jay-Z and up-and-comer The Game:

Jay-Z has been attacking other rappers for using Auto-Tune software, which corrects pitch while singers record. Auto-Tune is widely used in the industry, but Jay-Z is making a call for authenticity.

"He's saying 'these are the rules of the international system. If you want to be a civilized member of our international society, you have to not pursue nuclear weapons,''' Lynch says.

The Game is using the opportunity to tag Jay-Z as old and irrelevant.

The Game, then, is like North Korea or Iran: "He might not win, but he can hurt you if he drags you down into this extended occupation, this extended counterinsurgency campaign." And Jay-Z, a hegemon like the United States, can ill afford to get embroiled in little battles all the time. My goodness. So, then, what's a hegemon like Jay-Z to do? In his full-fledged editorial Lynch proffers a solution:

If he hits back hard in public, the Game will gain in publicity even if he loses... the classic problem of a great power confronted by a smaller annoying challenger. And given his demonstrated skills and talent, and his track record against G-Unit, the Game may well score some points. At the least, it would bring Jay-Z down to his level — bogging him down in an asymmetric war negating the hegemon's primary advantages. If Jay-Z tries to use his structural power to kill Game's career (block him from releasing albums or booking tour dates or appearing at the Grammy Awards), it could be seen as a wimpy and pathetic operation — especially since it would be exposed on Twitter and the hip hop blogs.

The Realist advice? His best hope is probably to sit back and let the Game self-destruct, something of which he's quite capable (he's already backing away from the hit on Beyonce) — while working behind the scenes to maintain his own alliance structure and to prevent any defections over to the Game's camp. And it seems that thus far, that's exactly what he's doing. We'll see if that's a winning strategy.... or if he's just biding his time getting ready for a counter-attack.

A lesson for all of us who thought rap wasn't educational. Happy weekend, everyone!

[HT: Freakanomics]

China-Africa Development Fund expands its African ties

2009-07-24T09:20:00.005-04:00

From today's WSJ:

The China-Africa Development Fund, which was founded by state-owned lender China Development Bank Corp., plans to raise $2 billion by November to help expand business links between Africa and China, CDB Vice Governor Li Jiping said.

[...] In an interview on the sidelines of the Australia-China Bilateral Investment Seminar, Mr. Li said the China-Africa Development Fund will raise the money for expansion from Chinese financial institutions, including insurers.

The fund, established in 2007 with an initial $1 billion investment by CDB, had said it aims to eventually increase its total assets for investment to $5 billion. Australia is also a part of CDB's global strategy, Mr. Li said.

Sweet beans of life!

2009-07-23T09:10:00.008-04:00

I confess: I'm an addict. I can scarcely get through a day without a cup of coffee. Or two. Sometimes even three. Every morning I make my way to the local coffee shop for my fix. In Oxford, Cafe Nero in Blackwells Bookshop is my cafe of choice. I always opt for a window seat so that I might watch the world go by on Broad as I sip my Americano and peruse the day's news. In Evanston, I found a home in Peet's; the wonderful aroma of coffee brewing hits your nose the moment you open the door. Most recently I discovered the Hungarian Pastry Shop in New York City and am longing to go back. What better way to pass a morning than with a delectable croissant, a perfect cup of coffee and a view on St. John the Divine?

Given my addiction, I can't help but comment on all the coffee related news that I've been stumbling upon recently. Last week I blogged that Starbucks is opening an office in Rwanda, with the hopes of collaborating with local farmers as a way of helping them overcome poverty, and of developing a potentially lucrative export market. According to Appfrica, Africa's first chain coffee factory opened in Uganda just yesterday. The factory is owned by Uganda's Good African Coffee company, which controls a value chain that begins with Ugandan farmers and continues all the way to supermarket shelves. The company has promised 50% of the profits to growers, their families and communities, and further offers training to farmers to help improve the quality and sale value of their crop. What a great initiative to promote local entrepreneurship.

China's coffee market is likewise heating up, with Costa Coffee, 85c and Dunkin Donuts now on the scene. Before, China's coffee market was dominated entirely by Starbucks (and its knock-off, SPR), which is now beginning to lose its grip. Presumably Starbucks is losing its grip in other markets as well, which is why the company has begun an intensive rebranding campaign, and is even considering adding alcohol to its menu. Because the one thing missing in this world is place where you can get free wifi, a bran muffin and a Stroh's.

But who knows: with Tim Horton's now aggressively entering the American market and 85c beginning to dominate in China, a bottle of Stroh's with your latte and muffin may be the perfect marketing pitch. Personally, though, I'd just opt for an Irish coffee. Extra strong, if you please.

Finance in Africa: Looking backwards to move forward

2009-07-22T09:53:00.004-04:00

Via VoxEU, Thorsten Beck, Michael Fuchs and Marilou Uy argue that Africa's financial stakeholders - bankers, donors and policymakers - must take the lead in implementing financial sector reforms in a way that maximizes Africa's opportunities:

Although the direct impact of the current crisis in the US and Europe on African financial systems is relatively contained – given that African banks are not as closely integrated in the global financial system as other regions of the developing world and hold most of their assets and commitments on rather than off the balance sheet – indirect effects through reduced real economic activity and reduced private capital inflows caused by reduced risk appetite might very well have negative repercussions for the real and financial sectors in Africa. Critically, the current crisis has put the debate on the appropriate role of government in the financial sector and the benefits and pitfalls of globalisation on policymakers’ agenda again. We will argue that it is important to study carefully past experience both in the region and other parts of the developing and developed world.

Beck et. al briefly expound on various approaches to the role of government in Africa's financial sectors - from activist to modernist, market-developing and market-enabling - and further explore the challenges and opportunities brought with the integration of African banks into international financial markets. Little is offered in the way of policy advice, other than to say that the strains placed on African markets as a consequence of the global market call for "further institution building as well as cautious and context-specific government intervention to help financial market participants expand financial services to the frontier of commercially sustainable possibilities." Yes: Quite right.

TEDGlobal in Oxford

2009-07-21T08:49:00.012-04:00

TEDGlobal began in Oxford today, exploring the Substance of Things Not Seen (the theme for this summer's gathering). While I unfortunately cannot be there for what always proves to be a fantastic conference, I intend to keep abreast of the proceedings from afar, as some truly fascinating questions are being tackled by the TEDGlobal speakers. Among them:

Is life a mathematical question?
Who's defining the new geopolitical map?
Can we design the air we breathe?
What's the power of music?
How does the brain create the mind?

This is, of course, but a small sampling from a very long list, but absolutely intriguing no less! Today's sessions focus on "What We Know," and "Seeing is Believing?" Speakers include young brass virtuoso Matthew White, philosopher Alain de Botton, graphic designer Stefan Sagmeister, optical innovator Joshua Silver, and space jumper Steve Truglia, among others.

This diversity of phenomenal speakers is the very thing that makes TED conferences so unique. That, and their distinct ability to create dialogue across many intellectual disciplines. It is, indeed, an approach worth emulating.

photo of Keble College, Oxford, among the TEDGlobal venues

Extra! Extra! Read all about it!

2009-07-21T08:47:00.001-04:00

The Onion has been bought out by a Chinese conglomerate and has a slew of spot-on and hilarious spoofs. Likely for a limited time only, so don't miss out.