And if the Chinese scramble wasn't enough, Russia wants a piece now, too

Via the WSJ, Ariel Cohen writes:

[...] Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and more than a hundred Russian businessmen last week visited Egypt, Nigeria, Namibia and Angola on the longest tour of Africa a Russian leader has undertaken since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Unlike President Obama, who is going to Africa next week for a brief stop to talk about global warming, Mr. Medvedev and his team targeted oil, gas, diamonds and uranium. Mr. Medvedev is trying to score points before his G-8 meeting with Western leaders in Italy July 8-10.

[...] By all appearances Mr. Medvedev and, by extension, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin are reviving the old Soviet Africa strategy. The Soviet Union maintained friendly relations with many African countries, including Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, Namibia, Angola and Mozambique.

[...] Africa lost its significance as an ideological chessboard after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the current volume of trade between Africa and Russia is trivial. But the continent remains an economic prize. China has spent billions of dollars in the past few years gaining friends, influencing dictators, and tying African countries to Beijing.

Now the Kremlin is trying to regain its status as a global player, including re-asserting itself in Africa. Mr. Medvedev's visit to Africa appears to be the first coordinated attempt by Moscow to do so. Where once the Soviet Union sought political hegemony, today's Kremlin is after economic objectives like trade and access to raw materials. But a shift in Africa's relationship with Russia will have consequences for many.

Indeed, it will surely be fascinating to observe how Russia's Africa policy will unfold and the extent to which - if any at all - the Kremlin will seek cooperation with China, which currently has the upper hand in the continent - arguably even more so than do either the U.S. or Europe.

Debunking the 'China retreat' theory

Recent speculation over China's alleged disengagement from Africa (see earlier posts here and here, for instance) could not be further from the truth. While pundits continue to tout China's withdrawal from the continent in light of growing (global) economic troubles, the data seemingly suggests quite a different reality.

A report released yesterday by South Africa's Standard Bank (download pdf here) lends much credence to this claim. Among the report's key findings:

• Premature conclusions regarding China’s perceived reduction of interest in Africa due to a realignment of its global priorities in light of cyclical economic uncertainties should be guarded against.
• In stark contrast to Africa’s traditional partners, China’s diplomatic engagements of Africa have been escalated in H01 2009 in anticipation of the Forum on China Africa Cooperation Summit (FOCAC) in Egypt in November. Following this, bilateral assistance from China to Africa has remained steady in 2009.
• The large infrastructure-based component of China’s ambitious stimulus plan has bolstered demand for African commodities in 2009, averting potentially greater declines in Sino-Africa trade volumes. Meanwhile, African demand for low-cost consumer goods from China has remained relatively resilient. '

With respect to the DRC deal which initially lead some to raise red flags over China's withdrawal, the report notes the following:

Chinese firms are also taking the opportunity to re-price several of their commodity-based investments in Africa in order to ensure that valuations reflect current realities rather than those in place during the height of the commodities boom in 2007, when many of the investments were initiated. This prudent recalculation has been perceived in the DRC and Gabon as a cooling off of interest from relevant Chinese investors, where in truth it is a calculated strategy by Beijing to leverage its competitive advantage in still being able to engage commercially to negotiate more favourable terms.

I hate to say 'I told you so,' but I told you so. Rather than retreating, China is merely shifting its strategy in the continent in response to ever-changing economic realities. If nothing else, the Chinese are exceptionally quick on their feet. With that said:

Any discussion on the sustainability of bilateral ties is deficient without a realisation that a withdrawal of China from Africa presents only one side of a complex picture. It is not in Africa's interests, particularly in today's liquidity starved international environment, to see China withdraw from Africa. Neither [...] is it in China's interests to do so.