The beginning of the end of 'China in Africa'? Hardly.

I received an email from a friend yesterday directing me to this publication in the Jamestown Foundation's China Brief, and enquiring as to whether the end of 'China in Africa' (the phenomenon, not the blog!) might be on the horizon. I've opted to respond publicly, as this is not the first time that the question has crossed my desk.

The short answer is: no. 

In the Jamestown piece, Jeffrey Herbst and Greg Mills argue that the commodity price decline has adversely affected African export prices and growth, and subsequently African relations with China. They cite the withdrawal of Chinese entrepreneurs from Zambia and the Congo, and an overall Chinese strategic retreat from the continent, in turn suggesting that the market - and not grand strategy - is the main Chinese motivation in Africa. 

While this may be true to an extent, I fear that Herbst and Mills are overstating their claim. While some Chinese entrepreneurs have migrated out of Africa, Beijing continues to aggressively pursue its African relations, regarding the reality of a now waning West as the ideal opportunity to strengthen its influence across the continent. In the last month alone China has:

• Signed a $280 million deal with Mauritania to extend the port at Nouakchott 
• Agreed to build a hospital in Nairobi
• Offered $77 million to Uganda in a renewed bid to boost the East African country's development
• Installed government internet in Senegal
• Signed an aid and cooperation agreement to further ties with Rwanda
• Signed a 2.6 billion agreement to develop Liberia's iron ore mine, the biggest ever investment in the West African nation
• Signed another agreement (the Chinese do love their agreements!) with Nigerian Communications Satellite Limited to replace the nation's first communications satellite, which failed in orbit in November 2008
• Secured a $1 billion loan to Angola
• And built a national radio and television broadcast building in Congo

What's more, the floundering China-Congo deal Herbst and Mills cite is faltering not because of declining growth and commodity prices, as they suggest, but rather because western donors are threatening to renege on their promises of relief on the country's historic debt of $11bn if the Congo accepts Chinese financing on commercial terms. According to Barney Jopson in today's FT:

The focus of concern, according to western diplomats in Kinshasa, is that the deal would give the Chinese consortium unprecedented state financial guarantees, including some that earmark government revenues and make China a privileged creditor[...]

Trade between China and Africa is at an all time high. Hu Jintao is touring the continent this week, stressing the importance of Sino-African ties and shoring up African good sentiment. Deals continue to be signed. And this is meant to be the end? No, I'm afraid this is only the beginning.

Latin America looks East

It would appear that Africa is not the only continent "looking East" these days: Latin America likewise appears to be following suit.

Indeed, while the United States is preoccupied with other parts of the world (Latin America is currently not a major priority for the Obama administration), China is paying increasing attention to its international alliances, particularly in Africa and across Latin America. For starters, Chinese President Hu Jintao is embarking on his whistle-stop tour of Africa tomorrow, where he is expected to stress Sino-African energy relations and shore up African good sentiment. Just yesterday, Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping, who is likely to succeed Hu Jintao early next decade, left on a tour that will take him to Mexico, Jamaica, Columbia, Venezuela, and Brazil -- all nations eager to strengthen their ties with China. Annnd, elsewhere in the region, Vice Premier Hui Liangyu is paying official visits to Argentina, Ecuador, Barbados and the Bahamas from February 7-19. Whew. It's exhausting just writing about it.  

No biggie, you say? Well recall that: 

President Hu visited Latin America in November, stopping in to Cuba and Peru. And while Hu was rubbing elbows with most of the major Latin presidents at the APEC summit in Lima, China’s highest ranking military officer was elsewhere in South America on tour.

That officer, Xu Caihou, is vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, which controls the People’s Liberation Army. Only President Hu outranks Xu in the military hierarchy. On his trip in November, Xu toured military installations in Venezuela, Chile and Brazil and promised increased exchanges between the two regions.

Trade between Latin America and China has also grown 13-fold since 1995, from $8.4 billion to $100 billion in 2007. China is now the region's second biggest trade partner behind the United States, and is an official member of the Inter-American Development Bank, which has huge (huge!) implications for regional trade. Trade between China and Africa likewise reached an all-time high in 2008, effectively solidifying China's predominance in the continent. And let's not forget Beijing's ties with Russia and, of course, Iran.

So the world is indeed shrinking, and what was once America's playground is now China's playground, too.